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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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468 FXUS63 KPAH 141803 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 103 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out with fropa during peak heating today. - Hot and humid summer-like air hits by Sunday and reigns thru next week with daily heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. About the only relief will be the slim almost daily chance for an isolated thunderstorm during the heat of the afternoon or early evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field developing along and behind the cold front. This trend should continue as the front sags southward thru the FA during peak heating. The CAMs are mostly silent, but do suggest some popcorn convection is possible, esp the FV3, which hints at some orographic assistance from the Ozarks with a little better development over portions of SEMO than any of the others show. Altogether, we`re satisfied with our isolated 10-20% pops we inherit. After fropa, or fro-disintegration, the upper ridge takes over for the weekend and into next week. Drier dew points Saturday will make high temps around 90 not feel so so bad, but by Sunday, those dew points start to nudge upward and ultimately they settle into the upper half 60s to around 70, where they stay for the entirety of the new week. That combined with daily highs into/thru the 90s will mean upper end 90s and some 100s for Heat Indices. It`s not headline material, but is worth notice as our first real stretch of significant heat/humidity this summer. The only relief will be the almost daily chance to encounter an isolated shower/storm during the afternoon or early evening. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Diurnal cu in the 3.5-5K FT AGL range will accompany a front`s passage this afternoon. An isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out, but the probability is low enough to preclude from terminal mention for now. Skies clear tonight as drier air behind the front overtakes the column in full. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$