683
FXUS65 KPIH 060741
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
141 AM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.

Ridge of high pressure will begin to build across the area today. We
should see lighter winds for the next few days but also warmer
temps. Best chances of seeing 90 or above exists across the lower
Snake Plain through the eastern Magic Valley. In these areas, there
is a 30 to 50% chance of reaching 90 degrees each afternoon. There
is a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well. We`ll
see storms arrive late this afternoon with most models showing
storms developing in the central mountains moving east into the
upper Snake Plain this evening, with another area moving through the
southern highlands late this afternoon and this evening. Latest
guidance indicates that the better chances for storms on Friday is
mainly across the southern highlands. However, previous runs were
showing storms developing in the central mountains and drifting into
the upper Snake Plain so will continue to mention storms in those
areas as well. Most storms are not expected to be severe. However, a
stronger storm or two is possible with gusty outflows as the main
threat.

13

.LONG TERM...Saturday through next Thursday.

Temperatures have gone up on Saturday as models amplify the ridge a
little more over our area. Also, the threat for storms is a little
less as well. The upper Snake Plain has a 30% chance of reaching 90
while the lower Snake Plain and eastern Magic Valley now have a 60
to 80% chance on Saturday. On Sunday, a cold front will arrive and
bring a better chance for thunderstorms areawide. However, the
timing seems a bit slower, now looking later in the day. As a
result, temperatures look warmer Sunday than yesterday`s 00z
guidance was showing. The upper Snake Plain still has a 30% chance
of reaching 90 while the lower Snake Plain have a 50 to 60%
chance. Heat risk values during this time reach the
moderate/orange "2" category for much of the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley. However, currently falling shy of heat advisory criteria
which we would need to be approaching Major/Red "3" category. At
this time, heat advisories look unlikely.

Cooler, drier air is expected behind the front as the pattern turns
flatter, more zonal. Temperatures should fall into the upper 70s and
lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday in the Snake Plain and Magic
Valley. Temperatures rebound slightly for Wednesday and Thursday
with mid to upper 80s likely.

13


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds are likely most of the
day at TAF locations. Late afternoon and evening isolated to
scattered thunderstorms could impact TAF sites. Gusty erratic winds
are possible from these storms.

13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer temperatures are likely through the weekend.
This will drive the minimum humidity values down into the upper
teens to mid 20s in many areas. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon and evening through the weekend.
Gusty erratic outflow winds are possible in and near storms.

13

&&

.HYDROLOGY...The flood warning continues for portions of Teton
county as small streams/creeks continue to run high. While levels
have dropped just slightly from yesterday, the increased flooding
risk still exists as snowmelt from the Tetons will feed into these
creeks and streams as temperatures continue to warm over the next
several days. The Teton River is also running at an elevated level
and is currently forecast to hit action level overnight while nearly
reaching minor flood level by Friday afternoon. AMM

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$