657
FXUS65 KPUB 100946
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area again
  today. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the main
  concerns.

- A warming and drying trend kicks off Tuesday, with near-record
  heat expected by Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Today, a weak low just south of our forecast area will move in as an
upper-level trough passes by to our north. Near the surface, a
blanket of stratus clouds will cover most of the area with lingering
moisture from yesterday remaining in place. As such, another round
of showers and thunderstorms is expected this afternoon and evening,
first across the higher terrain with the impacts moving over the
adjacent plains later. Steering flow at the mid-levels still appears
largely weak and disorganized, meaning that we will be seeing
another day of slow-moving storms with heavy rain potential.
Torrential rain and flash flooding will be our main impact concerns
today, especially over urban areas, areas that received large
amounts of rainfall yesterday, and areas along the Arkansas River
that are already running high. We`ll also have to keep a close eye
on the burn scars, mainly if storms linger overhead or train over
them repeatedly. Models have been somewhat inconsistent on impacts
east of the mountains, with some models pushing storms out onto I-25
and beyond while others keep the lower terrain largely dry. Current
consensus is for storms to linger over the mountains through the
afternoon and into early evening. Some scattered storms will manage
to move a bit further east towards I-25, though with the lack of
shear today they should be rather short-lived.

SPC still has our area outlooked as marginal for severe potential
today, with some storms possibly managing to intensify closer to the
mountains/plains interface. Torrential rainfall will still be our
main concern, but any stronger cells could produce severe hail/wind
for short periods of time. Current model consensus has precipitation
quickly waning across the area as we move into the overnight hours
and into early Tuesday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Tuesday..

A warming and drying trend begins on Tuesday, and looks to persist
through the middle of next week, as ridging sets up over the region.
Enough lingering moisture looks to be present on to Tuesday to
support scattered high-based showers and weak thunderstorms over
most of the forecast area. Our higher terrain and mountain adjacent
locations should see some decent rainfall out of storms still, but
our eastern plains locations could end up seeing more gusty outflow
winds than meaningful rain with Tuesday`s storms if we dry out as
much as models are currently pointing towards. Temperatures warm
back up to several degrees above where we`ll be on Monday, but only
two or three degrees above normal for most locations. Highs look to
be in the mid to upper 80s across our plains, with upper 70s and low
80s for mountain valleys, and 60s and 70s for higher terrain
locations.

Wednesday and Thursday..

We continue to get hotter and drier through this period as ridging
continues to build over the region. Pops and qpf both decrease in
coverage and intensity, and become restricted to the mountains for
Wednesday, and mostly non-existent for Thursday. This means that we
could see a few stray showers and weak storms over the high country
on Wednesday, though they will likely be gusty wind-makers moreso
than rain-makers. Precipitation is not likely for most areas on
Thursday. Temperature-wise, expect a steady climb to near record
heat by Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and a few 100s
across the plains on Wednesday, and widespread triple digits for
many locations on Thursday. It is still several days out, but all
three of our climate sites are forecast to come within a degree or
two of our record highs for Thursday. (Colorado Springs record: 95,
Pueblo record: 102, Alamosa record: 90)

Friday Onwards..

For Friday, models bring a low onshore over California late
Thursday, and into the Four Corners region by Friday evening. This
system will bring Pacific moisture and southwesterly flow into our
region, which should help to spark showers and thunderstorms for at
least the Friday and possibly Saturday timeframe as well depending
on timing, trajectory, and lingering moisture associated with the
system after it passes through. It`s too early to tell exactly how
this system will play out, but it seems likely that most areas will
see rain and storm chances for at least Friday. Another warming and
drying trend looks to follow suit quickly after the departing Friday
system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Winds this morning will generally be from the south-southeast,
picking up slightly as we move into the afternoon. Stratus are also
expected to persist over all three terminals. By 20Z or so,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will form across the area. KALS
will be the site impacted first, with passing storms producing gusty
outflow and intermittent heavy rain. MVFR conditions will persist
under showers along with lower ceilings. Storms will drift off of
the mountains this evening, drifting close to KCOS and KPUB.
Forecast confidence is currently too low to include any direct
precipitation impacts to these terminals, but lowered ceilings and
gusty winds are likely. Precipitation will dissipate across the area
close to the end of this forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 344 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Rapid snow melt continues, leading to elevated flows along the
Arkansas River from Leadville to Canon City through tonight, along
with smaller creeks and streams close to the mountains. While water
levels are generally expected to stay within their banks, fast flows
can still be dangerous. Storms this afternoon and evening will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall, leading to elevated flooding
concerns. Areas most likely to experience localized flash flooding
will be the burn scars, low-lying urban areas, and areas that
received heavy rainfall yesterday, along with areas near high-
flowing streams, creeks, and rivers.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
HYDROLOGY...GARBEROGLIO