413
FXUS65 KPUB 092036
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
236 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected today, with main risks
  being hail and torrential rainfall.

- Showers and strong thunderstorms are expected for tomorrow as well,
  with primary risks being heavy rainfall and localized flash
  flooding.

- A warming and drying trend kicks off Tuesday, with near-record
  heat expected by Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Currently..

Showers and thunderstorms have already developed across the high
country, one of which is already showing signs of being severe over
the Wet Mountain Valley. Stronger storms are beginning to develop
over the Pikes Peak region this hour as well. Dewpoints are very
high over the area, with many locations in the many locations in the
50s and low 60s this hour. Temperatures are in 70s over the plains.
Winds are southeasterly. SPC mesoanalysis is showing around 2000
J/kg of SBCAPE over our eastern mountains and the I-25 corridor for
the 2pm to 4pm timeframe. Supercell composites of 2 are being
analyzed over southern Fremont, western Pueblo, and Custer counties,
which is where our current severe warning is out. Dewpoints in this
area have been undersold by models all morning.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

Easterly upslope has brought in additional moisture, and is fueling
today`s CAPE driven thunderstorm activity. The main differences
between today and yesterday will be the lack of sheer and steering
flow, and the increase in moisture. This will make for slower moving
and more efficient rain-maker types of thunderstorms across our
area. With the amount of instability we have present in our
atmosphere though, we still can`t rule hail up to 1.5 inches and
wind gusts up to 60 mph. Though today`s severe threat will be more
torrential rainfall and localized flash flooding focused, we could
see impacts from damaging winds and hail across our eastern
mountains and the I-25 corridor. Storm look to push southeast
throughout the late evening hours, with most convection pushing down
into our southeast plains by around 11pm this evening. Depending on
lingering moisture from outflow boundaries, most areas look to be
dry by the early morning hours of tomorrow, though some high res
models guidance does keep showers over portions of our plains well
into the overnight hours.

Tomorrow...

Models bring a weaker/open low south of our border tomorrow which,
in combination with remnant pacific moisture from this weekend`s
event, will help to spread another round of showers and
thunderstorms across the area for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow
evening. Our temperatures increase by a couple of degrees, and our
dewpoints decrease by a couple of degrees, but for the most part we
will continue to see a risk of torrential rain and localized flash
flooding due to slow moving storms, possible training storms, and
already cresting local waterways. Urban areas that see high amounts
of rainfall today could see localized flash flooding tomorrow as
well. SPC has us outlooked for a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms across our eastern mountains and the I-25 corridor,
and WPC has most of our mountains outlooked for excessive rainfall
as well. Burn scars will be more at risk tomorrow, especially any
that see rain today.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Tuesday..

Models bring a ridging pattern back over our region by Tuesday,
which will kick off another warming and drying trend that will
persist for the Tuesday through Thursday portion of this week. For
Tuesday, enough lingering moisture looks to be present for isolated
to scattered high-based showers and weak thunderstorms over most of
the forecast area. Our higher terrain and mountain adjacent
locations should see some decent rainfall out of storms still, but
our eastern plains locations could end up seeing more gusty outflow
winds than meaningful rain with Tuesday`s storms if we dry out as
much as models are currently pointing towards. Temperatures warm
back up to several degrees above where we`ll be on Monday, but only
two or three degrees above normal for most locations. Highs look to
be in the mid to upper 80s across out plains, with upper 70s and low
80s for mountain valleys, and 60s and 70s for higher terrain
locations.

Wednesday and Thursday..

As ridging continues to build, we continue to get hotter and drier
through this period. Pops and qpf both decrease in coverage and
intensity, and become restricted to the mountains for Wednesday, and
mostly non-existent for Thursday. This means that we could see a few
stray showers and weak storms over the high country on Wednesday,
though they will likely be gusty wind-makers moreso than rain-
makers, and precip is not likely for most areas on Thursday.
Temperature-wise, expect a steady climb to near record heat by
Thursday, with highs in the mid to upper 90s across the plains on
Wednesday and widespread triple digits for many locations on
Thursday. It is still several days out, but all three of our climate
sites are forecast to come within a degree or two of our record
highs for Thursday. (Colorado Springs record: 95, Pueblo record:
102, Alamosa record: 90)

Friday Onwards..

For Friday, models bring a low onshore over California late
Thursday, and into the Four Corners region by Friday evening. This
system will bring Pacific moisture and southwesterly flow into our
region, which should help to spark showers and thunderstorms for at
least the Friday and possibly Saturday timeframe as well depending
on timing, trajectory, and lingering moisture associated with the
system after it passes through. It`s too early to tell exactly how
this system will play out, but it seems likely that most areas will
see rain and storm chances for at least Friday. Another warming and
drying trend looks to follow suit quickly after the departing Friday
system.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Main concern today will be late afternoon and evening
convection. showers and thunderstorms, with associated gusty
outflow winds, will likely impact KCOS and especially KPUB late
this afternoon and early evening. Brief periods of heavy rain
will be possible and this may bring MVFR/possibly IFR conditions
for a short period of time to KCOS and KPUB. Gusty outflow winds
will be possible, lasting an hour or so. Otherwise VFR
conditions anticipated.

For KALS, cant rule out a passing shower/-tsra later this
afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 234 PM MDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Rapid snow melt continues, leading to elevated flows along the
Arkansas River from Leadville to Avondale through at least
Monday, along with smaller creeks and streams close to the
mountains. While water levels are generally expected to stay
within their banks, fast flows can still be dangerous. Heavy
rainfall today and tomorrow could increase flash flood potential
for the southeast mountains and eastern plains, especially for
waters with already elevated flows.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...HODANISH
HYDROLOGY...EHR