045
FXUS65 KPUB 292007
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
207 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorm risk continues this evening for the
  southeast plains and returns again for Thursday along and
  east of I-25 with large hail and damaging winds the primary
  risks.

- Thunderstorms return for Friday across the plains with a few strong
  storms possible, though CAPE values start to come down

- Drier and warmer weather spreads in for the weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

Severe thunderstorm risk continues into the evening across the
southeast plains, especially to the north and east of a surface
low/dry line developing and kicking eastward to the south of Pueblo.
Upper trough to the north will keep the majority of the forcing
north of the area, resulting in more isolated convection initially
across southeast CO late this afternoon. However as thunderstorms
move eastward, dew points in the 50s will yield CAPE values 1500+
J/kg, particularly to the east of a Kim to La Junta Line.  Max CAPES
off HREF could exceed 2000 J/kg and combined with deep layer shears
around 30-40 kts will result in hail up to 2 inches in diameter and
wind gusts 60 mph or greater especially across our eastern counties.
Although SRH isn`t particularly high, some quick stretching of
vorticity on any boundaries could result in a short lived landspout
or tornado. To the west of the developing surface low/dry line,
drier low levels will result in less CAPE but more DCAPE with
damaging wind gusts from higher based convection the primary risk.
Models prog southeasterly winds into El Paso county until the
surface low moves eastward this evening and this may help maintain
sufficient CAPE for hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter into the
early evening.  Models develop/merge thunderstorms into a
cluster/MCS across eastern KS as the low level jet strengthens this
evening.  Will maintain some scattered pops near the border until
06z before diminishing overnight as activity pulls eastward.

Passing upper trough to the north will send a cold front southward
through the plains on Thursday with low level flow shifting around
from the east in the afternoon.  Dew points decrease behind the
front initially, but moisture advection brings a return of 50 dew
points into southeast CO by afternoon.  How far west the low level
moisture returns will determine the westward extent of the severe
weather risk for Thursday.  HREF mean CAPE values off 12z run shows
1000 to 2500+ J/kg by afternoon to the east of La Junta, though
there is the possibility for higher CAPEs to return into El
Paso/Pueblo counties as well. Deep layer shears are still running
around 30-40 kts supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms with
large hail and damaging winds the primary risks.  Consensus suggests
greatest risk east of a line from Calhan to Kim with locations to
the north of highway 50 being more favored. Models suggest another
thunderstorm cluster will develop and drop southeastward across the
plains during the overnight hours which will maintain thunderstorms
across the plains into the early morning hours.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

General trend in the long term will be drying and warming through
the period.  Residual low level moisture across eastern areas Friday
and Saturday will be sufficient for rounds of scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings across the southeast
mountains and plains. Deep layer shears are still running around 30-
40 kts given westerly flow aloft, but CAPE values come down a tad as
dew points mix out into the 40s each afternoon. This should decrease
storm strengths some, though can`t rule out a strong storm or two.

An upper trough moves across on Sunday bringing hot, dry and breezy
conditions to southern CO.  This could result in some spotty
critical fire weather conditions for the lower elevations of the
Wets and Sangre De Cristo mountain fire zone where fuels are last
reported as critical across the lower elevations.  Otherwise
temperatures will warm into the 90s for next week with the potential
for upper ridging taking hold mid to late week somewhere across the
southwest or southern Rockies. Temperatures may get knocked back
slightly behind a dry cold front for Wednesday, though highs will
remain above normal. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. There will be a
moderate probability of VCTS for KCOS and KPUB, with only a slight
probability of VCSH/VCTS at KALS. If SHRA/TSRA does develop, it
could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. Outflow
boundaries will be possible for both KCOS and KPUB during the late
afternoon through early evening hours due to convection, which may
cause abrupt windshifts. It could also result in periodic
windshifts and increased wind speeds up to 45 kts if storms
move over station. Winds will be overall diurnally influenced
towards throughout the forecast period. -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR/KT
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...STEWARD