Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
000
FXUS65 KPUB 262349
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
549 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered convective showers linger this evening, then
  diminish overnight.

- Drier/warmer weather in store for Wednesday

- Increasing fire weather concerns late week through the
  weekend mainly southern I-25 corridor and far southeast
  counties.

- Next impactful storm possible late weekend into early next
  week with the possibility for heavy mountain snows along the
  Continental Divide but low confidence on impacts for the
  southeast mts/plains until storm track becomes more certain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Rather widespread but shallow convection over the mountains at mid-
afternoon, as last portion of the western U.S. upper trough rotates
eastward toward CO. Haven`t seen any lightning yet in srn CO, though
there may be just enough instability (CAPE 200-500 J/KG) for a brief
tsra until early evening, mainly from the ern San Juans out into the
San Luis Valley. Shower chances fall off rapidly east of I-25 as
instability lessens, though some hints in a few models of increasing
upward motion along the NM border this evening with weak mid-level
warm advection developing. Overall, suspect activity will slowly
diminish after sunset as instability wanes, and followed most CAM
solutions of limited pops overnight (best chance central mountains),
thinking NAM looks overdone holding on to precip over far sern CO
Wed morning as better forcing will already be to the east of the
area. Just enough cloud cover to keep overnight mins warmer than
last night, though readings at most locations will still fall well
below freezing into the teens/20s (single digits higher mountains).
Warming trend begins Wednesday, as upper ridge builds and mid-levels
warm. Suppose we could hang on to just enough moisture for some
convective cloudiness over the mountains in the afternoon, though
not enough support for much if any precip. Residual snow cover and
rather light surface winds will hold back warm-up slightly, with
maxes in the 40s/50s at all but the higher mountain elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 322 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Minor upper ridging flattens out Wednesday night, then
transitions to southwesterly flow aloft as the next storm system
digs southward along the west coast late week. This system is
then progged to move into the southwest US Sunday night with a
long wave moving trough across CO through Monday.

For sensible weather this will mean a warming and drying trend
for the lower elevations through the weekend with increasing
winds as the surface lee trough deepens in response. RHs are
coming out too high for critical fire weather conditions across
the San Luis Valley on Thursday now, but we could see some
marginal critical fire weather conditions across the wind gap
areas of Huerfano county. However, snow cover in latest
satellite imagery is still holding strong, so there will be some
question as to whether fuels will be receptive.

A weak wave glances by to the north Thursday night and Friday
bringing some light snow to the Continental Divide with a few
showers spilling over into the eastern mountains at times.
Accumulations will be light through the period with 1-4 inches
possible across the higher areas of the Sawatch and Mosquito
Ranges. Meanwhile, winds will pick up further on Friday, though
incoming moisture aloft appears to quell critical fire weather
conditions for most areas as RHs come up a bit. Area to watch
will be the southern I-25 corridor and portions of the far
southeast plains. Otherwise, temperatures will return to above
normal for most areas.

As the long wave trough and closed upper low approaches from the
west over the weekend, we should see an increase in winds along with
an increase in snow for the Continental Divide by Sunday. Best
chances for critical fire weather conditions will be over southern
portions of the southeast plains both days with Sunday having the
greatest chance. Latest runs now bring the best forcing and chances
for rain/snow across the region with the northern stream
portion of the upper trough on Monday with snow levels dropping
across all of the plains Monday night behind a strong cold
front. With the energy splitting as the mean trough moves across
CO, there are a variety of solutions regarding precipitation
amounts, but probabilities for 6" or more of snow are greatest
across the eastern San Juans on Sunday where NBM shows 60-70% of
members advertise this possibility. Probabilities of 6" or more
are quite significantly less for the southeast mountains and
plains through Tues with values mainly 30% or less restricted to
the mountain zones. Jury is still out until the details of the
system track and strength are resolved. For now, upslope flow
does not look all that impressive for the southeast mountains
(more of a northerly component instead) as the system opens up
as it moves across. Tuesday trends drier towards the end of the
day as the system exits to the southeast. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. There will still be
some convective showers and even possible -TSRA in and around the
vicinity of KPUB through the evening but then continue to dissipate
with showers ending by later in the night. If there is a brief -SHSN
at either KALS or KCOS, and -SHRA at KPUB, it could temporarily
bring down VIS and CIG into MVFR or possibly IFR criteria, and could
also result in periodic windshifts. Winds will initially be
influenced synoptically through the remainder of this evening and
then become light (less than 10 kts) and more diurnally influenced
at all terminals by later in the night. They will begin to pick back
up again by later in the day out of the NW at all terminals towards
the end of the forecast period.   -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...TORGERSON
AVIATION...STEWARD


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.