131
FXUS61 KRLX 250110
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
910 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
Memorial Day holiday weekend. Some storms could be capable of
damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 905 PM Friday...

Had to add in some slight chance POPs for showers as a few
cells developed across the area at different corners, therefore
spread the POPs across much of the area, then tapered it off
through the overnight hours. These showers look to be quick to
develop and quick to dissipate and thunderstorm probability is
not zero, but very low at this point in time. However, there is
is one storm that recently developed near Clarksburg which should
be dissipating at any moment.

As of 710 PM Friday...

The forecast remains in tact and no significant changes were
made at this time.

As of 135 PM Friday...

A beautiful afternoon is underway for much of the forecast area to
kick start the Memorial Day weekend. This is with the help of
mid-level ridging aloft nudging shortwave energy eastward for
areas east of the mountains. However, radar trends at the time
of writing still have some pop up activity in our northeast
zones of Randolph and Pocahontas Counties sprouting along a
stationary front draped along our northern periphery. Outside of
a quick lightning burst in isolated convection, severe weather
is not anticipated today for our forecast area.

Radar trends quickly quiet down after sunset, with afternoon
cumulus fields also fading away. In a national perspective,
there is a low pressure system off to our west that will travel
across the country over the next several days, yielding
increasing moisture along onshore flow as our forecast area sits
within the warm-sector of this approaching disturbance.
Radiational cooling, coupled with light low level flow, may
promote areas of fog Saturday morning as a result of increased
moisture in the area.

After daybreak, fog erosion will branch out into another
afternoon cumulus field for Saturday. Temperatures warm up a few
more degrees into the mid-80s across the lowlands and the 70s
for the higher terrain, and growing muggier with the plethora of
moisture overhead. Aforementioned frontal boundary lazily
hanging over the area will once again promote isolated showers
and storms along the higher terrain Saturday afternoon.

By this point in the period, we`ll also have our eyes on a line
of convection pressing through the Ohio Valley that could
encroach on the western flank of the area late in the afternoon
and evening. A slightly better emphasis on strong to severe
thunderstorms will be placed on Saturday, which could be
accompanied by damaging wind gusts, hail, and/or locally heavy
downpours. This could yield localized flash flooding concerns,
especially in the event of training convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM Friday...

Sunday will once again bring another potential for severe weather
and flooding. A potent 500-mb shortwave will be approaching from the
west Sunday afternoon and evening as a warm front slowly lifts north
from northern West Virginia into eastern Ohio and southwest
Pennsylvania. Models are showing anywhere from 30-40 kts of 0-6 km
bulk shear over portions of West Virginia, southeast Ohio and
northeast Kentucky, which is sufficient to support organized
convection. However, models still disagree on the amount of
destabilization over our region. The best instability will likely be
over Kentucky and southern Ohio, where models are predicting
anywhere from 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Sunday evening.

The SPC has placed much of our region in a marginal risk of severe
weather Sunday, with slight and enhanced risks farther to our west
across central Kentucky. All modes of severe weather will be
possible, but the most likely threat will be damaging wind gusts as
a potential QLCS develops ahead of the cold front in Indiana and
southern Illinois in the afternoon and pushes eastward. The most
likely timing for our region appears to be late Sunday and into
Sunday night, but we still have low confidence at this time.
Flooding will also be a concern with models showing PWATs anywhere
from 1.5-2.0 inches. Saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall
won`t help the flooding threat, either.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 139 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday as a cold front finally
passes through from the west. The most likely timing of rain Monday
seems to be in the morning and into the early afternoon ahead of a
500-mb shortwave. There should be some drying by the late afternoon
and into the evening as most of the forcing exits to the east.

For the rest of the week, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
may linger on Tuesday and Wednesday as several rounds of energy
pivot around upper-level low pressure. The lower heights aloft will
translate to much cooler weather compared to what we have seen
recently. High temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to 70s
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows in the 40s and
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 735 PM Friday...

For our western sites, VFR will likely prevail even though a Cu
field is forecast to develop tomorrow afternoon. For our eastern
sites, VFR will be the dominate category outside some potential
for fog overnight into the mid to late morning. The main sites
which will be affected are CKB/EKN with VIS restrictions
forecast down to LIFR at both sites. With light flow and only
high clouds (not thick) fog can be prevalent across the valleys
as well possibly developing at CRW, maybe even BKW since
guidance does have some MVFR fog at that terminal. Confidence
is low on any fog for those two sites, however the possibility
is there.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog can sneak into other sites such as CRW
or even BKW however probability is low at this time.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       SAT 05/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
EDT 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JZ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ