620
FXUS61 KRLX 250615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front arrives this evening, and stalls across our north through
Sunday. This will keep showers and storms through Memorial Day weekend.
Damaging wind gusts, hail, and locally heavy downpours will be possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 208 AM Saturday...

Low level south to southwest flow develops ahead of an approaching
cold front today. Moisture advection and afternoon heating will
destabilize the atmosphere with surface CAPE values reaching 3500
J/Kg under a low to none shear. Local soundings show a dry column
within a tall skinny CAPE signature. With PWATs about 1.5 inches,
this environment could lead to isolated to scattered slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms some with heavy rain and associated
localized water issues. WPC has most of the area under a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall. In addition, SPC has a marginal risk
for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and
evening. The main threat will be strong gusty winds and large hail.
Allowed chance PoPs for afternoon convection, tapering off by
midnight.

The aforementioned cold front arrives to the Middle Ohio valley this
evening, stalling across our northern sections tonight into Sunday
morning. Upper level flow becomes diffluent with no noticeable
shortwaves passing tonight. However, cannot ruled out
convection activity along the stationary front tonight, but the
lack of forcing and heating should keep confidence low. Abundant
low level moisture, calm flow and breaks in the sky will allow
for radiational cooling and associated dense fog mainly along
river valleys late tonight into Sunday morning.

Under plenty of sunshine, afternoon temperatures warm up into the
mid-80s across the lowlands and the 70s for the higher terrain. Lows
tonight will generally be in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 50s higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 138 PM Friday...

Sunday will once again bring another potential for severe weather
and flooding. A potent 500-mb shortwave will be approaching from the
west Sunday afternoon and evening as a warm front slowly lifts north
from northern West Virginia into eastern Ohio and southwest
Pennsylvania. Models are showing anywhere from 30-40 kts of 0-6 km
bulk shear over portions of West Virginia, southeast Ohio and
northeast Kentucky, which is sufficient to support organized
convection. However, models still disagree on the amount of
destabilization over our region. The best instability will likely be
over Kentucky and southern Ohio, where models are predicting
anywhere from 1,000-1,500 J/kg of MLCAPE by early Sunday evening.

The SPC has placed much of our region in a marginal risk of severe
weather Sunday, with slight and enhanced risks farther to our west
across central Kentucky. All modes of severe weather will be
possible, but the most likely threat will be damaging wind gusts as
a potential QLCS develops ahead of the cold front in Indiana and
southern Illinois in the afternoon and pushes eastward. The most
likely timing for our region appears to be late Sunday and into
Sunday night, but we still have low confidence at this time.
Flooding will also be a concern with models showing PWATs anywhere
from 1.5-2.0 inches. Saturated soils from recent heavy rainfall
won`t help the flooding threat, either.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 139 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms are likely Monday as a cold front finally
passes through from the west. The most likely timing of rain Monday
seems to be in the morning and into the early afternoon ahead of a
500-mb shortwave. There should be some drying by the late afternoon
and into the evening as most of the forcing exits to the east.

For the rest of the week, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
may linger on Tuesday and Wednesday as several rounds of energy
pivot around upper-level low pressure. The lower heights aloft will
translate to much cooler weather compared to what we have seen
recently. High temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to 70s
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows in the 40s and
50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Saturday...

Starting the period with widespread VFR conditions across the CWA.
Expecting MVFR/IFR dense fog or low stratus to develop around 08Z
along the northern mountains affecting CKB, and EKN through
12Z. Any fog will quickly dissipate by 13Z. For Saturday, expect
mostly sunny skies with convection firing up during the
afternoon and evening hours. Some thunderstorms could become
strong to severe and capable to produce heavy rain in a short
period of time. Damaging winds, and large hail are the main
threats. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions possible under
any shower or storm.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Convection could be more widespread than
expected producing longer periods of IFR/LIFR along their path.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 05/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ARJ