Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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398 FXUS61 KRLX 011611 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1211 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry through this evening, rain chances increase late tonight into Sunday. Will see a break on Monday with unsettled weather returning by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1210 PM Saturday... Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure continues to shift east through the remainder of the day today into this evening allowing a plume of Gulf enhanced moisture to shift east into our forecast area this evening into Sunday. Through the evening and first half of the overnight any radar returns will probably struggle to translate to accumulating rainfall at the surface with initially dry low levels and light precipitation rates. Instability will begin to build toward daybreak and peak late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with increasing chances for accumulating rain, and perhaps some pockets of heavier rain by late in the morning Sunday given precipitable water values near 1.5 inches, deep but skinny instability profiles, and deep warm cloud depths. Given recent dry conditions and the fully greened state of vegetation, not expecting much in the way of water issues unless a heavier downpour persists over a more built up area.&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Saturday... This period starts with a weak surface low passing just toward our north. This feature will drag a weak frontal boundary through which will be enough to support shower and thunderstorm activity, however looking at soundings with the lack of shear and instability, we are likely looking at sub-severe storms. PWATs have increased along with long skinny CAPE coming into the equation which will support more rainfall and possibly heavy downpours and thankfully DCAPE is very low which will decrease the chances for downbursts. The frontal boundary will pass by nightfall and then from there on weak high pressure both at the surface and loft will build in from the west for a short period on Monday. Unfortunately the weak high pressure will allow for some diurnal activity as far as shower and storms are concern. This will likely be confined to the mountains due to the elevated heat effect although we cannot rule out a possible storm elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 230 AM Saturday... For Tuesday, this day did a complete 180 degree switch from yesterday with going from being unsettled to fairly quiet weather with surface high pressure staying in the vicinity along with stronger ridging aloft. This equates to quieter weather for most of the day. However some activity may occur during the afternoon and evening hours and mostly confined to the mountains. Models are in better agreement on timing with the next system to affect the area. This feature will bring a cold front associated with a parent low traversing across the Great Lakes. This potent low will drop the frontal boundary down and slowly pass it through as the potent low becomes stronger and slides south not progressing toward the east, therefore slowly inching toward the area and not away. Activity ahead of the aforementioned cold front will take place on Wednesday and then frontal passage will take place on Thursday if everything cooperates. Models then have the low dipping down and affecting the area with wrap around flow which will keep unsettled weather in the area for the weekend, according to models, which has another frontal boundary wrapping around through the area on Saturday, but at that point models diverge. Decided to go with blended model guidance toward the end of this period. This equated to very high POPs for Wednesday and Thursday with thunderstorm activity possible around the clock. Friday will not be a washout, but will have chances of showers and chances of diurnal thunderstorms. Southerly flow will keep warm moist air pumping into the area from Tuesday through Thursday promoting temperatures above seasonable by about 10 degrees. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1210 PM Saturday... VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours as generally virga or very light precipitation begins to spread over the region tonight. Cloud bases will progressively lower to near MVFR near or after daybreak with chances for heavier showers including at least some potential for embedded thunder increasing toward the end of this TAF period. Overall confidence in thunderstorms affecting any given field is rather low with fairly meager instability through 18Z, so will code only -SHRA for now. Winds generally southerly less than 10KTs, except gusty and erratic near any showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Isolated thunderstorms possible prior to 18Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, then again at times late Tuesday into Thursday. IFR also possible in post-rain stratus, and perhaps fog, late Sunday night and early Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP/JZ NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...JZ LONG TERM...JZ AVIATION...JP