Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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243 FXUS63 KSGF 130524 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1224 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity will start ramping up on Thursday and continue into next week. - Low end thunderstorm chances on Thursday night(15-30%) as a front sags south into the area. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a zonal flow with the main northern stream jet located along the Canadian / U.S. border with some shortwave energy shifting east along southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba along the border of Montana and North Dakota. A southern stream low was off the southern California coast with some upper level ridging east of this low over the 4 corners region. Lower in the atmosphere, the surface ridge axis was southeast of the area with a southerly wind across the forecast area. This has brought an increase in surface temperatures and dew points to the area with temperatures in the lower to middle 80s and dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Very little to no cloud cover was visible on the satellite. For tonight: the upper level storm track will remain well north of the area, however the shortwave will push into the upper Mississippi valley and should aid in dropping a cold front a bit further south into Nebraska and Iowa by morning. We should remain mostly clear here in the Missouri Ozarks with a southerly wind continuing. Lows will be warmer tonight than the past couple of nights with early morning readings in the low 60s in south central Missouri, to the mid and upper 60s over our western CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Thursday: Moisture will continue to increase ahead of a southward dropping cold front as it moves into central MO by the end of the day. Highs should reach the upper 80s to low 90s across the area with heat index values in the mid to upper 90s. Thursday night: Storms will develop north of the area during the afternoon and evening ahead of the front where 3500-4500 j/kg CAPES will reside. Some of these storms may survive into our northern CWA on Thursday night with a marginal risk of severe storms (cat 1 of 5). Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main risk with any storms that may push into the area. Friday: Models show a weak boundary that does make it into the area on Friday with 3000-4500 j/kg CAPES developing over the area during the day. There will be an impressive thermal cap over the area so we are not forecasting any widespread convection, but also can`t rule out some isolated storms with the boundary in the area. The heat will enter it`s 2nd day with heat index values from the mid 90s to around 101. This weekend: Upper ridge axis will be over the area with the upper wave currently off the southern California coast ejecting into the plains and eventually Mississippi valley. The bulk of the energy with this feature will remain north and northwest of the forecast area and for now we are keeping POPS below the 15% level. The heat and humidity will persist through the weekend with highs in the low to mid 90s and heat index values in the mid 90s to around 102. Monday-Tuesday: An upper trough will develop over the western U.S. and a surface front should remain to our west in the plains during this period. We will likely be on the eastern edge over the better precipitation chances which should keep the heat and humidity in place through at least Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through the majority of the TAF period. Some high clouds from a remnant thunderstorm complex will continue to dissipate tonight. Light SSW`ly winds will modestly increase to 8-13 kts after 14Z before decreasing again after 02Z. There is a low-end chance that remnant showers and thunderstorms will make it to SGF and JLN after 04Z as some models are beginning to depict this scenario. These are not expected to be severe if they do make it to the TAF sites. Likely mode would be scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Record High Temperatures: June 16: KSGF: 97/1952 KJLN: 95/2016 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 15: KSGF: 74/2022 June 16: KSGF: 75/2022 June 17: KSGF: 76/2016 && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Price CLIMATE...Price