152
FXUS63 KSGF 021912
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and muggy summer-like pattern into midweek with daily
  chances for showers and thunderstorms. Highest chance for
  thunderstorms (greater than 50%) is currently Monday into
  Tuesday night. Severe threat remains marginal however a
  slight risk for excessive rainfall exists.

- A pattern change will occur late in the week with near normal
  temperatures and lower rain chances (less than 30 percent)
  however confidence is low with the details of this pattern
  shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show generally westerly flow over the
CONUS with a mid/upper level trough axis over the Rockies. There
are some embedded more mesoscale vorticity which were aiding in
the thunderstorm complex over the southern plains. Regional
radar shows a linear complex stretching from central OK into
north TX along the Red River. Surface based CAPES have risen
into the 3500-4000 j/kg range over our far western CWA, but we
have some capping over the area which is keeping any vertical
development at bay. Temperatures were ranging from the upper 70s
to low 80s with dew points from the mid to upper 60s.


Tonight: A frontal boundary in the plains along with upper level
energy and a low level jet will aid in additional thunderstorm
development well to our west. This thunderstorm activity should
push east and possibly into our far western CWA towards sunrise.
Most areas of the CWA should remain dry tonight with lows from
the mid 50s to low 60s.

Monday: Remnant showers and thunderstorms from the convection to
our west tonight will move into the western CWA during the
morning. Moisture should continue to increase over the area with
PW values increasing into the 1.4 to 1.6" range during the day.
Remnant outflows and/or MCV will be the focus for additional
convection during the afternoon as instability increases. Heavy
rain will be likely with any storms that develop with a slight
chance of excessive rainfall. The stronger storms will also be
capable of a damaging wind risk with up to 60 mph winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday night into Tuesday night: Several waves of energy will
push across the area with decent rain chances continuing through
the period(50-80%). Given the high moisture content continuing
over the area, the excessive rainfall risk will continue. We do
have some areas of 1-3" potential through Wednesday, with some
LPMM pockets of 4-5". Pinpointing these higher totals with the
mesoscale features will be difficult, however the potential will
be there.

Wednesday - Saturday: An upper level wave should push through
early Wednesday with the main area of rain exiting to the east.
High pressure will move into the area behind the surface front
with a cooler and drier air mass along with northwesterly flow
aloft. Upper level high pressure to our southwest and the main
low to our northeast should keep us in a northwesterly pattern
into the weekend. There are some differences in model solutions,
but this setup should keep pops generally on the low side (30%
or less) through Saturday. Temperatures will be seasonal for
this time of year through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Late in the
period, some scattered thunderstorms will be possible, but at
this time confidence of this occurring at the TAF sites is less
than 30 percent, so we are not including the 18z TAFS.
Additional thunderstorm development will be possible outside of
this TAF period along any remnant boundaries or upper level
MCV`s.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg