106
FXUS63 KSGF 051959
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
259 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonable conditions are forecast through Friday with
  near average temperatures.

- Pattern change for the weekend expected with potential for a
  few rounds of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall.
  Slight risk for flooding late Friday night through Saturday
  night.

- A cooler than average start to next week will be possible with
  highs Monday and Tuesday in the middle 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Surface high pressure was moving into the region in the wake of
the cold front that movers through the region this morning.
This has allowed for clearing skies with temperatures climbing
to around the 80 degree mark this afternoon.

The Ozarks area forecast to remain under northwesterly flow
aloft with reinforcing surface high pressure moving over the
region Through tonight into Thursday. This will bring pleasant
weather to the region with lows tonight in the upper 50s to
around 60 degrees and highs on Thursday in the lower to middle
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Thursday night through Friday: The overall upper level pattern
will not chance as northwesterly flow remains thanks to upper
level ridging over the western CONUS. Surface high pressure over
the plains will continue to move over the Ozarks through Friday
allowing for a quiet end of the work week. With high pressure
over the area Friday morning, lows will drop into the lower 50s
with an isolated upper 40 reading not out of the question in the
valleys of the eastern Ozarks.

Friday Night through the Weekend: Synoptic and ensemble models
have persisted in bringing rain and storms to the Ozarks Late
Friday night, mainly after midnight model depending. The set up
through the weekend looks to be active and unsettled as a
result. The upper level flow is forecast to remain
northwesterly as a stationary front develops and orients itself
parallel to the upper flow. There remains some uncertainty as
to ultimately where the front will stall, but expectations are
for it to occur over the Ozarks. The synoptic setup favors
multiple rounds of rain moving over the same regions as the
orientation of the front and upper level flow would also
interact with the night time low level jet. This would provide
the focus for MCS movement along the front and allow for periods
of heavy rainfall. WPC currently has an Excessive Rainfall
Outlook indicating a slight risk for Heavy rainfall and flooding
across southern Missouri and the Ozarks late Friday night
through Saturday.

With the potential for multiple rounds of rainfall and periods
of heavy rain current QPF amounts run from a third of an inch
across central Missouri to 2.5" along the Arkansas state line.
The NBM probabilities indicate the potential for at least 0.5"
of rain (40-60%) to 1.0" or more (20-40%) mainly along and south
of the Highway 60 corridor. This may shift north or south
depending on the ultimate resting place of the front.

Monday through Wednesday next week: The region will start of
cool in the wake of the weekend rainfall. Dry conditions are
also expected are upper level northwesterly flow, though
modified at points, remains the overall upper level pattern.
This may bring periods early next week of highs in the middle
70s, or about 10 degrees below average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A few lingering low clouds remain in the south/southwest part
of the area as showers and storms have completely exited. These
ceilings should improve to VFR conditions within the next hour
or two, and will remain so for the rest of the period.
Northwesterly winds of 10 knots will switch to southwesterly
winds of 5 knots or less this evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch