Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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704 FXUS63 KSGF 092246 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 546 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An area of showers and storms will continue to push east across south central Missouri early this afternoon. - Residual flooding will likely continue through the night into Monday after the area of 5 to 8 inches of rain over the past 2 days. - A cooler than average early this week with highs today through Tuesday in the middle 70s. - Warmer Temperatures return later in the week into next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis and water vapor imagery show a low pressure system over southwestern Quebec with a trough extending south into the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. A ridge was developing over the Rockies and high plains with a northwesterly flow developing over the central U.S. in between these features. This was helping to slowly push a front south of the MO/AR border with a surface high moving into the area. The boundary which was over the area last night with tropical like moisture over the area aided in training thunderstorms which brought about widespread flooding. Two day totals of 5 to 8 inches have occurred in an area from near Nevada to near Springfield to north of West Plains. Many rivers remain in flood (minor to moderate) and MODOT was reporting many low water crossings flooded throughout the CWA. Rest of the afternoon: Showers, with a few remaining rumbles of thunder will continue to scoot eastward and out of the area during the remainder of the afternoon, but should clear the area by late afternoon or early evening. Cloud cover will likely persist over much of the CWA, with some clearing taking place in the northern CWA, eventually spreading southward. Tonight: Clearing should continue from north to south with a cooler and drier air mass moving into the area. Temperatures should dip into the low to mid 50s for lows tonight. May need to watch out for some fog development with a clearing sky and light wind developing and the recent heavy rainfall. CAMS are not really showing much for fog development and for now have left out of the forecast. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Early part of the week: Residual flooding will likely continue through at least Monday from the heavy rainfall this weekend. North to northwest flow aloft will continue and bring in a Canadian air mass with cooler and drier air to the area. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s for highs with lows Monday night in the 50s and Tuesday night in the mid 50s to low 60s. Wednesday through Saturday: A warming trend is expected through the period. Flow will become more zonal by Wednesday with the jet stream well to the north along the US/Canadian border. Some upper ridging will move into the area. Moisture will continue to increase on the back side of the surface high. Temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend. May need to monitor for some afternoon/evening instability based thunderstorms, but for now am going with a dry forecast. A front may push through on Friday into Friday night which would have a more focused chance of convection, but for now we are keeping dry conditions going through the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 545 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Skies have cleared from north to south across much of the area but a few clouds could linger across far southern Missouri into early this evening but will quickly clear this evening. Surface high pressure is also moving south into the area and will allow light winds this evening into Monday morning. A drier air mass is also advecting into the region from the north. With the drier air mass not expecting widespread fog development early Monday morning, but cannot rule out some patchy ground fog in locations that received heavy rain over the weekend. Confidence in fog development at the TAF sites is low and therefore did not mention in TAFs. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Wise