804
FXUS64 KSHV 050648
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
148 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

No major wholesale updates are required to the forecast package
at this time. Increased PoPs and added severe wording to the wx
grids to account for the most recent approximate consensus of
short range high resolution models.

As of this writing, impacts from the MCS developing in central
Oklahoma look to begin in McCurtain county between 08Z and 09Z,
tracking southeast toward the Three-State Point by 12Z and
further into the ArkLaTex as the morning continues.

No Severe products are in effect for the ArkLaTex at this time,
but Watch issuance within the next several hours is likely, based
on the evolution of the storms in Oklahoma. Damaging winds will
the primary threat, with large hail and a spin-up tornado or two
also within the realm of possibility.

In addition to the convective hazards, flash flooding will be a
chief concern, as the region remains highly saturated and runoff
is causing area waterways to continue to rise further, ahead of
the heavy rainfall with the overnight and early morning storms.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Unfortunately, another active short-term is on the horizon, as
another thunderstorm complex looks to move into the region
overnight, and linger through tomorrow afternoon. This MCS will
very much resemble what we`ve been experiencing the last two days,
with it moving into the area from the NW, exiting to the SE. A
slight risk for severe weather remains in place across the region,
as this MCS will be capable of producing damaging winds.

Elsewhere, a moderate risk for excessive rainfall remains in
effect for the overnight hours, as additional heavy rainfall is
anticipated into tomorrow afternoon. Given the saturated soils,
the flood watch remains in effect through tomorrow afternoon, as
it won`t take much for additional flash flooding to occur. 1-3
inches of additional rainfall are possible, with locally heavier
amounts certainly possible given these heavier rainfall rates.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

With all that bad news out of the way, there is a glimmer of hope
of dry weather in the long-term. Upper-level ridging will nudge
north into the day on Thursday, shifting the NW flow back to the
north as well. This will result in limited rain chances into the
day on Saturday, before this ridge begins to slightly retreat into
Sunday. So while rain chances during this timeframe will be
limited, high temperatures will begin to skyrocket, with highs in
the mid-90s anticipated by Thursday.

Come Monday, a trough and cold front will begin to work through
the Midwest, with the front extending all the way back into W.
Texas. This front will begin to increase rain chances once again
across the region, with thunderstorm chances returning as well.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

For the 05/06Z TAF period, a line of strong convection continues
to shift into our NW airspace early this morning and will begin
impacting some of our terminals prior to daybreak (TXK/TYR/GGG).
SHV/ELD may also see this line arrive just before 12Z with gusty
winds likely along the leading edge, generally between 25-40 kts.
Additionally, low stratus will result in MVFR cigs expanding over
our entire airspace through the remainder of this morning as the
line of strong convection shifts farther SE of the Interstate 20
corridor with LFK/MLU seeing its arrival shortly after 12Z. Cigs
will gradually improve this afternoon as convection largely exits
the region with VFR conditions likely returning for the latter
half of the TAF period. Breezy S/SE winds between 5-15 kts will
become more variable (and briefly N/NW with line of convection)
later in the period with winds decoupling by 06/00Z.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  72  94  73 /  60  20  10   0
MLU  87  70  92  70 /  70  30  10   0
DEQ  87  63  92  66 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  88  68  94  70 /  50  10   0   0
ELD  86  67  93  68 /  50  10   0   0
TYR  89  70  93  72 /  30  10   0   0
GGG  88  70  93  71 /  50  10   0   0
LFK  90  72  93  71 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...Flood Watch through this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...Flood Watch through this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-
     136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...19