114
FXUS64 KSHV 061541
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1041 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this
time.

/44/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Latest hourly readings are in the mid to upper 60s in our rural
areas and the bigger cities are still in the lower 70s. Fog is
patchy and big time in a few spots recently like Magnolia last
hour and Mount Pleasant these past hours sporting a 1/4mi.
"Clearly" speaking, which nearly describes our sky condition, we
will see additional development toward sunrise. However, despite
the light wind, many sites are running 2-5mi. So not a big deal
yet, but could be in a few hours. We do have some lingering clouds
over deep east TX and SE AR and most Parishes remain scattered
low clouds 4-6kft up.

And finally for once in a long while, no discussion of radar
imagery needed as only NWS mosaics see some convection well east
of the MS River. Weak high pressure is spreading down across the
southern plains this morning. A 1016mb core is sitting on the
front range with a standard 1013mb contour still quite distant
over KN. None the less all getting the job done. And the good
news is more high pressure in the short and long terms.

For today with our light winds, we do have headlines for portions
of our I-20 corridor in TX with an Ozone Action Day in effect
today. Highs will see lower 90s for the most part and same on
Friday with perhaps more mid 90s showing up with some
compressional heating on the next air mass arriving. That 1016mb
core will be located in the Natural State by mid morning on
Friday mid morning with both the GFS and NAM depictions. This
will bring down a little better wind speeds from the NE helping
to lower dew points, if only for Friday. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

During the overnight hours, the NE wind will run out of gas and
begin to veer to E/SE around 5 mph. Aloft, our heights will peak
in the 593dam altitude, spreading from E TX into the coastal LA
Parishes during Saturday. This, along with dew points starting to
warm again, makes Saturday the HOT day. Many of our zone
groupings have a mention of "Heat index values 101 to 104" and a
few say "102 up to 105 in the afternoon", and Lufkin over to
Toledo Bend say up to 105" for the max.

The good news is that this muggy air thins out a bit and drops
back a tad for Sunday. So we are not expecting to need any heat
advisory areas at this point, but we will be monitoring for higher
numbers. Not much else do anyway with PoPs and WX still out of the
picture until late Sunday. Our next air mass will push across the
high plains and midWest with a 1020mb core in the western Great
Lakes states overnight. This will present an opportunity for more
rainfall, but the timing now being faster during the overnight
and into early Monday, will limit QPF amount potential. Good as
we are set on rain for a while, but to note, this pace nearly
equals 1991 at this point. Monday`s daytime heating may still
have our Parishes left for bigger storms to end the day. These
will be progressive and move out or weaken by sunset.

Then we are cooler and drier for a nice break early next week. We
may shave 10 degrees off of Sunday`s numbers and see a large
range of 80s for highs on Monday. Then more mid to upper 80s for
highs into midweek. Lows will drop back with some more upper 50s
possible in our far north and mostly low to mid 60s early in the
week. We will get back to normal lower 90s to wrap up the work
week as lows head back to room temperature.

This decent cold front has an interesting side effect as the NE
winds stir offshore briefly and help spin up the Easterlies. I
made mention of a look 24 hours ago, and now the GFS and ECMWF
have punctuated that thought with a weak low off the Yucatan that
deepens to 997mb on the sfc and an upper reflection of 584dam
lifting toward Houston next weekend. So this and many more
opportunities as the Tropics get busy with all that warm Gulf
water. So far, this is just out of range with "nothing expected
for the next 7 days" from the National Hurricane Center`s outlook
on today`s TWOAT (Tropical Weather Outlook for the ATlantic). /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

For the 06/12Z TAF period, mostly VFR conditions are observed to
begin the period with lingering cirrus clouds across the SE third
of our airspace. With calm winds and saturated soil conditions
from recent heavy rainfall, patchy fog is observed at a few sites
with MVFR vsbys for an hour or two before quickly improving with
the onset of heating. Otherwise, look for mostly SKC conditions
with light and variable winds through much of the period as sfc
high pressure will dominate.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  72  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  92  70  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  92  67  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  92  69  92  71 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  92  66  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  92  70  93  72 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  93  70  94  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  94  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...19