111
FXUS64 KSHV 130553
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

No changes needed for this update, as the current forecast remains
on track. Upper ridging and sfc high pressure will remain over the
region tonight. This will result in mostly clear skies and light
winds overnight. Expect lows to range from the mid 60s in our
eastern zones, to upper 60s across portions of East Texas. /20/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A broad shortwave trough is moving east through Louisiana and
will continue across the Mississippi River into the Northern Gulf
this evening. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the trough
have been ongoing across Central and Southeast Texas for much of
the day. Over the last couple of hours, some diurnally-driven
pulse convection has developed over Central and North Texas near
the Interstate 45 corridor. However, latest satellite imagery
indicates dry air advecting into the region from the northeast as
a surface ridge expands southwest. Combined with subsidence from
the surface high, this should keep the area precip-free for the
entire short-term forecast period.

Clearing skies and light winds tonight should allow for good
radiational cooling conditions with overnight lows falling into
the 60s areawide. I didn`t stray far from the NBM even though
these temps are on the lower side of the guidance envelope.
However, some of the other guidance also forecast higher
dewpoints. We should quickly rebound on Thursday as most locations
warm into the 90s for daytime highs under clear skies and very
light winds. Benign conditions should persist into Thursday night,
but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than tonight.

CN

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Ridging aloft and at the surface will provide strong subsidence
and clear skies with generally light winds. As a result,
temperatures will continue to warm through Sunday. Daytime highs
should warm into the upper 90s in several locations Saturday and
Sunday, especially across Louisiana. I would not be surprised to
see a few isolated locations right at the century mark. However,
moisture levels should be low enough to keep heat index values
below Heat Advisory criteria across the majority of the area.

Late Sunday, a plume of tropical moisture will move onshore along
much of the Northwest and North Gulf coast along with an inverted
trough. This trough will provide a focus for increased chances of
diurnally-driven convection each day from Sunday afternoon through
Wednesday. Rain chances should increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a
potential tropical system moves northward, possibly affecting
Northeast Mexico and Deep South Texas. Latest model guidance has
been considerably less aggressive with rain chances and QPF
amounts, likely because surface winds and low-level flow are
progged to be more easterly versus onshore Tuesday and Wednesday,
which would tend to keep most of the rain closer to the coast.
Thus, the highest rain chances in the long-term forecast will be
across our southernmost counties and parishes in Deep East Texas
and into Central Louisiana.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

For the 13/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to continue throughout
the course of this forecast period. Aside from a few high clouds,
mostly clear skies will prevail. Winds will become light overnight
and remain variable in direction, achieving maximum sustained
speeds of no more than 5 to 10 kts during the daytime hours.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  90  66  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  90  64  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  92  67  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  90  64  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  92  69  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  92  67  95  69 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  92  68  95  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26