Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
154 FXUS64 KSHV 130347 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1047 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 No changes needed for this update, as the current forecast remains on track. Upper ridging and sfc high pressure will remain over the region tonight. This will result in mostly clear skies and light winds overnight. Expect lows to range from the mid 60s in our eastern zones, to upper 60s across portions of East Texas. /20/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 A broad shortwave trough is moving east through Louisiana and will continue across the Mississippi River into the Northern Gulf this evening. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the trough have been ongoing across Central and Southeast Texas for much of the day. Over the last couple of hours, some diurnally-driven pulse convection has developed over Central and North Texas near the Interstate 45 corridor. However, latest satellite imagery indicates dry air advecting into the region from the northeast as a surface ridge expands southwest. Combined with subsidence from the surface high, this should keep the area precip-free for the entire short-term forecast period. Clearing skies and light winds tonight should allow for good radiational cooling conditions with overnight lows falling into the 60s areawide. I didn`t stray far from the NBM even though these temps are on the lower side of the guidance envelope. However, some of the other guidance also forecast higher dewpoints. We should quickly rebound on Thursday as most locations warm into the 90s for daytime highs under clear skies and very light winds. Benign conditions should persist into Thursday night, but temperatures should be a few degrees warmer than tonight. CN && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Ridging aloft and at the surface will provide strong subsidence and clear skies with generally light winds. As a result, temperatures will continue to warm through Sunday. Daytime highs should warm into the upper 90s in several locations Saturday and Sunday, especially across Louisiana. I would not be surprised to see a few isolated locations right at the century mark. However, moisture levels should be low enough to keep heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria across the majority of the area. Late Sunday, a plume of tropical moisture will move onshore along much of the Northwest and North Gulf coast along with an inverted trough. This trough will provide a focus for increased chances of diurnally-driven convection each day from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday. Rain chances should increase Tuesday and Wednesday as a potential tropical system moves northward, possibly affecting Northeast Mexico and Deep South Texas. Latest model guidance has been considerably less aggressive with rain chances and QPF amounts, likely because surface winds and low-level flow are progged to be more easterly versus onshore Tuesday and Wednesday, which would tend to keep most of the rain closer to the coast. Thus, the highest rain chances in the long-term forecast will be across our southernmost counties and parishes in Deep East Texas and into Central Louisiana. CN && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period, with winds remaining mostly variable between 5-10 MPH. /44/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 68 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 63 90 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 64 90 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 67 92 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 61 90 64 94 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 69 92 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 68 92 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 70 92 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...44