Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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714 FXUS64 KSHV 110001 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 701 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue mainly in two distinct areas as a series of weak upper level disturbances moves across Texas and Louisiana. Unorganized pulse convection is the dominant mode south of Interstate 20 in Deep East Texas eastward into Central Louisiana. This activity has developed in the vicinity of a weak surface cold front. Farther north, additional convection has been ongoing for most of the day along the elevated frontal boundary. The southern convection, which has been far more robust, has been fueled by surface-based CAPE values in excess of 3500 J/kg. The northern convection developed along a very sharp gradient of SBCAPE, which is now decreased below 1000 J/kg per latest mesoanalysis. This seems logical given the rapidly weakening for the northern storms. Given the trends noted above, the convection should become more focused across the southern half of the area through the remainder of this afternoon. Deep layer shear is very meager suggesting these storms are likely driven mostly by diurnal instability. Therefore, the convection is expected to gradually weaken this evening, and no additional rain chances are anticipated overnight. The frontal boundary and upper trough should be well to the west and south of the forecast area for Tuesday. This should keep the vast majority of the precip out of the area, but a few isolated diurnally driven showers or thunderstorms will be possible across portions of East Texas Tuesday afternoon as another shortwave trough slowly drifts eastward across North Texas. Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy conditions should persist tonight. Northeasterly surface winds should also advect some drier and more stable air into the region. With the cloud cover beginning to become more scattered in nature, this should allow a warming trend to begin, but daytime high temperatures on Tuesday should still range from the mid 80s to lower 90s. CN && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Tuesday`s shortwave trough will still be lingering across the region and will be slowly making it`s way eastward over Louisiana and into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This may allow for a slight chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms across Deep East Texas Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, no additional rain chances are anticipated until late next weekend. An upper level ridge is progged to move eastward into the Southern Plains during the latter half of the work week. With surface ridging also overhead, strong subsidence should keep the area precip-free until Sunday. Clearing skies and abundant sunshine will allow the warming trend to increase. By Friday, daytime high temperatures should be well into the 90s areawide. Some locations may be flirting with the century mark on Saturday. However, dewpoints and humidity levels are expected to low enough to keep peak heat index values below Heat Advisory criteria through the next seven days. The forecast becomes increasingly uncertain for Sunday and into early next week. The upper level ridge should move east of the region while southwesterly flow aloft and low-level southerly flow returns. Medium range models are in decent agreement suggesting a low from the Gulf of Mexico will move northward into Louisiana bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms to much of the area as early as Sunday, but higher rain chances are expected to start the following work week. CN && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the 11/00Z TAF period, a mix of of MVFR/low VFR cumulus is still affecting most terminals late this afternoon as post-frontal dry air is still slowing seeping into our airspace from the north. In addition, some spotty convection is still invof our East Texas terminals so have included VCTS at TYR/GGG/LFK for the first few hours of the period. Otherwise, any lingering convection should diminish with heating loss after sunset with just some residual debris cloud cover overnight. Cirrus will persist throughout the period with additional cu developing around 11/15Z on Tuesday. Light E/NE winds will prevail between 5-10 kts this evening and decrease after 11/03Z sfc high pressure shifts closer from the N. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 91 70 91 / 10 10 0 10 MLU 66 87 65 87 / 10 0 0 0 DEQ 62 86 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 65 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 63 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 70 88 69 88 / 20 20 10 20 GGG 69 89 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 LFK 71 90 70 87 / 30 30 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...19