340
FXUS64 KSHV 100529
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Some weak sea breeze activity managed to make it into Deep East
TX and Toledo Bend country late this afternoon and early evening
so did have to insert low-end PoPs across these areas to account
for this activity. Otherwise, isolated convection across our far
northern zones continues to remain possible overnight associated
with a weak frontal boundary that is still slowly sagging south.
Expect these trends to continue as the front approaches the I-20
corridor during the pre-dawn hours. The current forecast reflects
this thinking so no additional changes are needed at this time.
Updated text products have been issued.

/19/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase tonight, as
upper-level ridging begins to break down ahead of the trough and
cold front. Thankfully, organized rain chances continue to look
limited, with total QPF values remaining limited as well. The
front as a whole continues to look a little more diffuse, but
thankfully we can still expect a decent swing in temperatures
behind the front into Tuesday. Highs tomorrow will be limited by
the additional cloud cover as well, with highs only getting up
into the low to upper-80s. Lows tonight will still hover in the
mid-70s, before dropping behind the front tomorrow into the low to
upper-60s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Thankfully, the long-term looks a little less active today as
well, as the one "big" midweek system may remain well to our west.
If you remember my discussion yesterday, you`ll remember me
talking about a lot of uncertainty regarding the scope and speed
of the disturbance moving SE out of the Rocky Mountains. Well, it
looks like that disturbance will work into central Texas by
Wednesday, where it will break apart into the day on Thursday.
This will keep that heaviest axis of rain to our west as well,
resulting in only scattered shower and thunderstorm chances in our
far western zones into Wednesday afternoon.

From there, upper-level ridging moves back overhead, with
afternoon highs climbing back into the mid to upper-90s. Organized
rain activity will be limited during this time, with only isolated
chances in our southern zones from seabreeze activity.

/44/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

For the 10/06Z TAFs, scattered thunder around the Toledo Bend
country has dissipated, while isolated storms continue in extreme
southeast Oklahoma. These are not expected to become widespread,
but some distant lightning within sight of KTXK is not out of the
question. A slight chance of thunder remains through the overnight
hours for area airspace along and north of the Interstate 20
corridor, spreading further south during the morning and
afternoon. CIGs look to increase in coverage and descend to lower
VFR and MVFR heights as 10/12Z approaches, remaining at or near
these heights into the daylight hours. Localized visibility
reductions are possible in heavier showers and storms. Light and
variable winds will assume a more northeasterly course overnight,
increasing to speeds of 5 to 10 kts after daybreak.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  69  89  68 /  20   0  10   0
MLU  86  65  86  64 /  20   0  10   0
DEQ  84  62  86  62 /  20   0  10   0
TXK  85  65  88  65 /  20   0  10   0
ELD  84  62  86  62 /  20   0   0   0
TYR  86  69  87  69 /  30  10  10  10
GGG  86  68  88  67 /  30   0  10   0
LFK  89  71  89  69 /  30   0  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...26