029
FXUS64 KSHV 040647
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
147 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

To clear severe wording PoPs/WX through the overnight post watch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Widespread severe thunderstorm activity has moved eastward. We are
still watching a wake surge of new development riding NE up our
I-30 corridor. Some of these cells may have small hail and gusty
winds to 35 mph. Anything stronger will be alerted with
additional special weather statements. An isolated storm may
become severe, but all of this area is only half way into recovery
and even now activity is weakening in Miller County. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A fairly active weather pattern will continue through the rest of
the week into the weekend across the Four State Region. The
aforementioned synoptic setup will not change much until ridging
across the Four Corners/West Texas builds eastward into our area
by the weekend. Until then, additional MCSs cannot be ruled out
and are notoriously tricky to catch in their initiation, speed,
and intensity by high-resolution guidance, reducing ideal forecast
certainty. That said, the best windows for more activity will be
on Wednesday and later this weekend as a frontal boundary somewhat
interrupts the best environment for convection between those two
times. Temperature maximums/minimums will remain near-to-above
normal in the lower 90s/mid-70s, respectively. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

For the 04/06Z TAF period, still dealing with convection across
our northern and eastern airspace early this morning but coverage
and intensity has greatly diminished. This trend is expected to
continue through the remainder of this morning with low stratus
returning as we approach daybreak and thereafter with MVFR/IFR
cigs likely through the first half of the period before improving
back to VFR toward midday/early afternoon. Additional convection
during the day Tuesday remains difficult to pin down so have only
inserted VCTS starting around midday through the afternoon hours.
Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail between 5-15 kts with higher
gusts invof of any convection.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  76  91  74 /  30  10  40  20
MLU  89  73  90  72 /  40  10  50  30
DEQ  85  70  88  68 /  30  30  30   0
TXK  89  72  88  71 /  30  20  40  10
ELD  87  71  87  69 /  40  10  50  10
TYR  90  75  90  73 /  20  10  30  10
GGG  89  74  89  72 /  30  10  40  10
LFK  91  76  93  73 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...19