666
FXUS64 KSHV 031719
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1005 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

As of 10:45 AM CDT, temperatures are approaching the upper
70s/lower 80s under mostly cloudy skies. Thunderstorms expected
later today are proceeding across central Oklahoma as anticipated,
however, the strength and timing of the thunderstorm complex
arrival remains slightly uncertain with guidance also suggesting
more scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across Deep
East Texas. With weather and observed trends continuing as
anticipated, forecast grid adjustments were not necessary at this
time. /16/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Little change from our recent climatology with mid to upper 60s
pretty much bottoming out for the low temps this morning. Most
locales still have an umbrella of cirrus and for a while yet, and
that seems to keeping the development of fog at bay. We are
running anywhere from 0-4 degrees on spreads right now, so if the
clouds go fast, we may have to put some light fog back in for the
commute. The KSHV 88D is showing the last of a few showers
clearing our Parishes from the late evening push. And trends
across I-30 have seen an overall decrease in recent coverage from
a couple of hours ago, but still some lightning near Clarksville
right now.

Looking a little farther upstream, another impulse is firing on
all cylinders out of Kansas into OK. This feature is modeled by
HRRR to be pulling into our air space later this afternoon and
continuing with zeal down across our I-30 corridor and down into
our I-20 corridor early this evening. The SPC has all of our
Counties and Parishes in a rather large Slight Risk area with
expectations for around 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE. So the pattern is
still full "Drought ghost" rider and the stir in the westerlies
still feels unchanged with a healthy ElNino`s lingering
influence. Rainfall totals at this point are second only to the
all time strong event back in 1991, albeit more spread around so
as to limit overall flooding this Spring.

These MCS systems sometimes take time to pivot on unused energy,
but overall remain progressive enough to limit widespread
flooding. We had a couple of flash flood warnings in deep east TX
yesterday, but more rain will affect our north today. The WPC
does have much of the southern plains and middle MS River Valley
in a large Slight Risk for excessive rainfall today and we sport
less QPF than areas immediately surrounding our cwa. And to note,
in the medium range we still look to trend less wet in their days
2-5. So things may yet get to full on summer soon enough.
However, we can enjoy the cooler than average afternoon temps with
all the rain and associated cirrus taking the edge off a few more
days. Highs mostly in the upper 80s may continue into midweek. As
far as model preference, the GFS doesn`t initialize well, but it
comes around along with NAM as far as agreeing with the CAMs and
HRRR for today and especially this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Beyond midweek temps should get back to and in some cases above
average on lows and highs as we dry out a little. The overall
pattern keeps a deep parent low over the Great Lake and MidWestern
states through the weekend. The warmest day this week still looks
to be Thursday with a touch of compressional heating perhaps as
we see a cold front shifting our surface winds to Northerly by
Friday and into Saturday, but the area of high pressure does not
appear to scour much for us as we set up for more nocturnal
thunderstorm activity on the decaying frontal boundary over the
coming weekend. The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement on our seeing
more excessive rainfall perhaps beyond day 5. This could turn out
to be a very wet spring, then the tropics will begin to take
center stage for what has been a super active period for much of
the midSouth and Gulf coastal states. The 8-12 period shows an
H500 low sliding our way ensure more of the same. And the NOAA
8-14 day outlook has us carrying below average temps, which you
guessed it, can only mean better than average rainfall. /24/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings late this morning is expected to
give way to a low-end VFR ceiling into the afternoon, with several
rounds/areas of convection developing. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected across Deep E TX, with an MCS moving north to south
across northern terminals. Some uncertainty in timing and exact
location will maintain lower confidence with convection at
terminals through the evening, especially with the MCS. Expect a
short period of quiet weather into the overnight period, with
ceilings dropping to MVFR. Overcast conditions will mostly prevent
fog development, but still cannot rule out patches of low vsbys
during this time given expected heavy rain with the MCS/general
convection. Another MCS appears likely early Tuesday morning,
affecting all terminals, but its evolution will be affected by
Monday`s MCS, casting even more uncertainty through the latter
half of the TAF cycle. Winds will remain S/SE thru the period
generally 5-10kts, although temporarily erratic and gusty in and
around convection.

Kovacik

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  91  76 /  50  40  20  10
MLU  89  73  90  74 /  50  30  30  10
DEQ  86  70  86  71 /  60  40  20  30
TXK  87  71  90  73 /  60  60  20  20
ELD  86  69  89  70 /  60  40  20  10
TYR  88  74  91  74 /  50  20  10  10
GGG  89  74  91  74 /  50  30  20  10
LFK  90  76  91  75 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...23