653
FXUS64 KSHV 250243
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
943 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms still remain possible this afternoon
across portions of northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, northwest
Louisiana, and southwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main threat this afternoon. While the threat for an
isolated tornado is low today, it is not a zero. In addition, heavy
downpours could bring some flooding concerns to low lying and flood
prone areas. Radar imagery remains quite early this afternoon but
that should change as we head later into the afternoon and evening
hours. Surface analysis as of 18z shows a frontal boundary from
north central Texas into western Texas with a dryline boundary
extending south through west Texas. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop near the frontal boundary with some isolated storms near the
dryline this afternoon. These thunderstorms will gradually push east
into our area by late this afternoon and continuing into the evening
and early overnight hours before tapering off during the night.

Upper-level pattern this afternoon features an area of low pressure
centered over South Dakota with the surface low around the central
North Dakota/South Dakota line. The upper-level closed low will
slowly drift to the northeast over the next 24 hours before
centering itself over southeast Manitoba in Canada. The cold front
in association with this low pressure system will stall out
somewhere between north Texas and southern Oklahoma before lifting
back to the north as a warm front by Saturday afternoon that will
set the stage to what could be a big event for Oklahoma. At the same
time, a shortwave will be moving through the Four Corners region
with a surface low moving into Western Kansas. Aside from some
lingering convection during the early morning hours Saturday, the
rest of the day and Saturday night should remain fairly quiet in
terms of thunderstorms. Nonetheless, it will be warm. Temperatures
will climb into the mid 80s to mid 90s from north to south
respectfully. Heat indices will be the big thing to watch for
Saturday and Sunday with values reaching the lower to mid 100s
during the afternoon hours. We will be close to reaching Heat
Advisory criteria for portions of deep east Texas but as of right
now, I am not sure that we will reach it for two consecutive days
as required so will go without any headlines at this time.

33

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Troughing will remain in place across the central CONUS as we move
into the long-term portion of the forecast period. At the surface,
an area of low pressure will be centered over the mid-central
CONUS with a cold front extending south from central Kansas into
western Texas. A dryline will also be in place from central
Oklahoma into southwest Texas. This will lead to some thunderstorm
development across east Texas that will traverse through the rest
of our area on Sunday. Right now portions of northeast Texas,
southwest Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma are in a Slight Risk
for strong to severe storms on Sunday. Upper-level trough will
quickly push to the northeast Sunday night into Monday morning
with a decent cold front developing and extending from the Upper
Midwest to north central Texas. This front will eventually push
through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning, ushering
in some "cooler" and drier air.

Monday should be the last day that we see Heat Index values reach
the 100 degree mark as the rest of the week will be well below
this mark. Monday will see temperatures climb ahead of the front
into the lower to upper 90s. On Tuesday, the "cooler" air will
begin to filter in behind the front and will be most noticeably
felt across our far northern zones with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Wednesday will be the "coolest" day of the period
with temperatures in the 80s across the region. No major chances
for precipitation to speak of right now in the long term period
however, that is always subject to change.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Fri May 24 2024

For the 25/00Z TAF period, convection will continue to affect our
NW terminals this evening, generally including KTYR/KGGG/KTXK and
possible KELD. This convection will result in reduced cigs/vsbys,
followed by widespread MVFR cigs overnight through late Saturday
morning. These cigs should improve to VFR closer to 25/18Z with a
cu field lifting throughout the afternoon. Additional convection
may develop very late in the period, but it may be delayed until
just after 26/00Z so have opted to forego any mention on Saturday
afternoon for now. Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail at around
5-10 kts with higher gusts invof of convection.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  93  76  94 /  50  20   0  10
MLU  72  93  73  94 /  30  20   0  10
DEQ  66  87  70  90 /  60  10  10  10
TXK  70  91  74  92 /  60  20   0  10
ELD  68  90  71  92 /  50  30   0  10
TYR  72  92  75  93 /  50   0   0   0
GGG  72  92  74  92 /  50  10   0  10
LFK  74  94  74  94 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM....33
AVIATION...19