Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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653 FXUS64 KSHV 312328 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 628 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Atmosphere really struggling to destabilize after early morning convection has moved nearly through our region this afternoon. Still monitoring some light to moderate precipitation across our far SE zones as well as some very light precipitation underneath the upper low itself across portions of SE OK, SW AR and NE LA. While our area is still under the influence of weak to moderate upper forcing and scattered thunderstorm development is still very possible across our east and northeast half through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours, do not believe this is enough to justify the Flood Watch that was in effect. Therefore, given output from a majority of CAMS, not to mention HREF and other deterministic models, have decided to cancel the Flood Watch with this forecast package. Concerning the severe thunderstorm risk for the remainder of the day across our eastern half, thinking is that this will be more isolated in nature and confined to our far eastern zones vs all of N LA and most of SW AR and confined to the early evening hours only. Still weighted pops heavier across our far northern and eastern zones this evening but keeping slight chance pops even across the west and southwest as some of the CAMS are still hinting of some late night convection along a residual shear axis near the I-20 Corridor late tonight but coverage should be isolated to widely scattered if we see it at all. Other than isolated to widely scattered morning convection on Sat, convection during the day should be tied to mostly diurnal heating as we should become much more unstable on Saturday than we are today. Upper forcing will be present due to dirty west northwest flow aloft present across our mainly the southern half of our region and thus, pops on Sat are weighted heavier across our southern zones but still kept pops in the scattered category even across our northern half given the expected storm coverage. Concerning temperatures, did come off NBM fcst mins slightly overnight given the possibility of overnight fog across mainly our western zones but otherwise should see a slight warming trend commence on Saturday and that trend will continue into Sunday and into the long term portion of the forecast as well. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Sunday into at least Monday, our region will continue to be under the influence of WNW flow aloft and thus, we will continue to experience at least scattered convection across our region both days, much of which will be tied to diurnal heating. By Wednesday, strong upper ridging should begin developing across the Southern and Central Plains into the Intermountain West and it appears that this feature will be intruding far enough east into our CWA to divert higher pops to our north and east. This upstream ridging is then forecast to migrate eastward, encompassing more of the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley which should result in even less convection coverage for the later half of the work week. Of course with the influence of upper ridging comes hotter temperatures with afternoon highs well into the 90s beginning Tue and continuing through at least Thursday. Given how moist soils are currently, will need to watch for the possibility of Heat Advisory criteria being met with Heat Indices near 105 degrees. 13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Skies have rapidly cleared from the west this afternoon across deep east Texas, now spreading into north Louisiana and south Arkansas. Dropping prevailing VCTS as storm development looks unlikely at this time across ArkLaTex airspace. SCT/BKN clouds will remain possible, with lower OVC CIGs east within the next several hours before skies clear. South winds will become light overnight, becoming more variable as they adopt a westerly orientation tomorrow. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 70 87 71 89 / 30 40 20 40 MLU 67 85 69 88 / 40 40 20 50 DEQ 64 85 65 86 / 30 30 20 40 TXK 67 87 68 88 / 30 30 20 40 ELD 65 85 66 87 / 40 30 20 40 TYR 69 86 71 88 / 20 40 20 30 GGG 68 86 70 88 / 20 40 20 30 LFK 69 87 72 89 / 20 50 20 40 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...26