Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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567 FXUS64 KSHV 281456 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 956 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 953 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Updates delayed this morning than it probably should have been given the very active weather ongoing so needless to say, but changes to the forecast are widespread and include increasing pops and lowering temperatures. Uncertain as to if these storms currently near and south of the I-20 Corridor in NE TX will sustain themselves into NW LA but storm coverage should increase nonetheless even if intensity drops off which it should. No other changes attm...13. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 A weak frontal boundary lingering across north-central and northeast Texas has been the trigger for convection across the Red River Valley during these early morning hours. This area will be the source region for continued convective initiation through the remainder of the overnight hours. Ongoing storms near daybreak will force an outflow boundary southeast across the ArkLaTex later today. Conditions across the ArkLaTex are primed to support strong to severe thunderstorms along the outflow boundary today. The combination of rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the lower 70s and an upper-disturbance translating southeast within a northwest flow pattern will support deep convection ultimately leading to the potential for an MCS that will generate damaging winds and large hail along with an isolated tornado threat across the ArkLaTex. There is some uncertainty associated with type and intensity of convection due to timing of the progression of the outflow boundary. Should the outflow boundary race across the region early in the day, MCS development may be reduced. However, should the outflow boundary move through later in the day, diurnal heating will play a role in further destabilizing an already unstable airmass across the region ahead of the boundary producing a heightened severe threat. Convection to linger into the evening hours as fairly amplified low-level trough lingers across the northern gulf coast. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s. Synoptic pattern to remain fairly stagnant through Wednesday as low to mid-level trough remains parked across the region in the vicinity of the frontal boundary resulting in an unsettled weather pattern characterized by decent rain chances areawide. High temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 70s to lower 80s. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 An upper trough swinging east across the central CONUS along the northern periphery of an upper-ridge across Mexico will allow for an unsettled weather pattern across the ArkLaTex on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage early Friday morning, persisting through much of the day. A weak upper-low may deepen across south Arkansas on Friday night allowing for storms to possibly increase in intensity allowing for an isolated severe thunderstorms and heavy rain threat across Arkansas. Conditions to improve on Saturday as upper-trough shifts east into Mississippi and Alabama and ridging rebuilds across the region. However, diurnally driven convection remains possible along a lingering frontal boundary. Frontal boundary to remain in place across the ArkLaTex through Saturday, maintaining increased rain chances through the early part of the weekend. Front is forecast to lift north on Sunday allowing for improved conditions late in the weekend into early next week. Temperatures through the long-term period to remain fairly consistent with highs in the 80s and lows around 70. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024 For the 28/12Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the period (with MVFR/IFR vis/cigs exceptions for low clouds over east Texas terminals through at least 28/15Z). Light easterly winds will also continue through the period. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 88 71 82 69 / 100 40 50 30 MLU 90 69 82 67 / 60 20 40 30 DEQ 82 64 80 64 / 100 30 50 30 TXK 85 67 82 67 / 100 30 50 30 ELD 87 65 79 64 / 70 30 50 30 TYR 85 69 83 69 / 100 40 60 30 GGG 86 69 82 68 / 100 40 50 30 LFK 89 72 84 70 / 100 30 60 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...16