756
FXUS64 KSHV 311933
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
233 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Atmosphere really struggling to destabilize after early morning
convection has moved nearly through our region this afternoon.
Still monitoring some light to moderate precipitation across our
far SE zones as well as some very light precipitation underneath
the upper low itself across portions of SE OK, SW AR and NE LA.
While our area is still under the influence of weak to moderate
upper forcing and scattered thunderstorm development is still very
possible across our east and northeast half through the remainder
of the afternoon and evening hours, do not believe this is enough
to justify the Flood Watch that was in effect. Therefore, given
output from a majority of CAMS, not to mention HREF and other
deterministic models, have decided to cancel the Flood Watch with
this forecast package. Concerning the severe thunderstorm risk
for the remainder of the day across our eastern half, thinking is
that this will be more isolated in nature and confined to our far
eastern zones vs all of N LA and most of SW AR and confined to the
early evening hours only. Still weighted pops heavier across our
far northern and eastern zones this evening but keeping slight
chance pops even across the west and southwest as some of the CAMS
are still hinting of some late night convection along a residual
shear axis near the I-20 Corridor late tonight but coverage should
be isolated to widely scattered if we see it at all.

Other than isolated to widely scattered morning convection on Sat,
convection during the day should be tied to mostly diurnal heating
as we should become much more unstable on Saturday than we are
today. Upper forcing will be present due to dirty west northwest
flow aloft present across our mainly the southern half of our
region and thus, pops on Sat are weighted heavier across our
southern zones but still kept pops in the scattered category even
across our northern half given the expected storm coverage.

Concerning temperatures, did come off NBM fcst mins slightly
overnight given the possibility of overnight fog across mainly our
western zones but otherwise should see a slight warming trend
commence on Saturday and that trend will continue into Sunday and
into the long term portion of the forecast as well.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Sunday into at least Monday, our region will continue to be
under the influence of WNW flow aloft and thus, we will continue
to experience at least scattered convection across our region both
days, much of which will be tied to diurnal heating. By Wednesday,
strong upper ridging should begin developing across the Southern
and Central Plains into the Intermountain West and it appears that
this feature will be intruding far enough east into our CWA to
divert higher pops to our north and east. This upstream ridging
is then forecast to migrate eastward, encompassing more of the
Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley which should result in even less
convection coverage for the later half of the work week. Of
course with the influence of upper ridging comes hotter
temperatures with afternoon highs well into the 90s beginning Tue
and continuing through at least Thursday. Given how moist soils
are currently, will need to watch for the possibility of Heat
Advisory criteria being met with Heat Indices near 105 degrees.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Mix of low, mid and high clouds across the airspace this
afternoon following the passage of an MCS to the SW. That being
said, light RA continues to work east across the region, while
TSRA is present just to the south of KPOE, working north. CAMs
have not handled the evolution of the complex very well to this
point, a theme that has been ongoing as we remain in this NW flow
pattern. This has generated very little confidence in what will
occur this afternoon. For now, elected to take an average of each
hi-res solution to get some handle on timing and coverage.
TSRA/SHRA probs will exist this afternoon, starting to think more
for the eastern terminals, before exiting the airspace after
00z-03z, with CIGs tanking overnight. Not ruling out some BR
through 12z before CIGs lift and we transition some OVC to BKN
after sunrise.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  71  89 /  30  40  20  40
MLU  67  85  69  88 /  40  40  20  50
DEQ  64  85  65  86 /  30  30  20  40
TXK  67  87  68  88 /  30  30  20  40
ELD  65  85  66  87 /  40  30  20  40
TYR  69  86  71  88 /  20  40  20  30
GGG  68  86  70  88 /  20  40  20  30
LFK  69  87  72  89 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...53