Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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133 FXUS64 KSHV 270011 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 711 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 As expected, SSW winds have increased across the Wrn sections of the region, in response to the tight pressure gradient present ahead of a sfc low over SE KS/SW MO. In fact, winds have gusted to near 30kts especially over portions of E TX, and thus, have maintained the Wind Advisory in effect for much of E TX/SE OK/Miller County AR, and extreme NW LA. But despite the low level moisture advection ahead of the dryline which has mixed E into NW AR/SE OK/N TX, temps and the attendant heat indices have yet to reach Heat Advisory criteria across the region as of 1930Z, but have opted to leave the Advisory as is until its 00Z expiration as some localized areas may still near criteria on this holiday weekend. The afternoon water vapor imagery indicates the our shortwave trough over has nudged E into Wrn OK/WCntrl TX, and should help reinforce the dryline/weak cool front farther E into NE TX/SW AR this evening before becoming stationary (for the time being) along the AR/LA border late. A few of the various CAMs continue to suggest that isolated convection may develop this evening along this front, despite the shallow low level moisture in place. Should the moisture/forcing be sufficient enough, strong SBCapes and steep mid level lapse rates would help aid in convection development, which may persist through a portion of the overnight hours. Have expanded slight chance/low chance pops over much of the area, with the higher pops over Srn AR/N LA. Weak cool advection and a clear sky should yield slightly cooler temps along/NW of the I-30 corridor, but will have to await for weak sfc ridging building in from the NW to help reinforce the weak front S into Cntrl LA/more of E TX Monday before it slows again. Although the NBM is keeping the Srn and Wrn zones near the front dry Monday, did add slight chance pops for Cntrl LA and Deep E TX to respect moisture pooling, higher instability, and the potential for isolated convection, which is hinted amongst a few of the CAMs. While max temps should be hotter Monday than what has/will be observed this afternoon, drier air mixing S behind the fropa will maintain heat indices below Heat Advisory criteria for much of the region. However, the Srn counties and parishes in Deep E TX/Cntrl LA will near criteria, but have opted to hold off extending the advisory for these areas given the uncertainty of the true frontal position, and extent of drier air mixing S. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The weak front still remains progged to linger across the Srn zones Monday evening before drifting farther S overnight with the lack of mixing, and have added slight chance pops for the evening for these areas. The flow aloft is then expected to transition to NW Monday night, and appears to set the stage for an unsettled long term period Tuesday through Saturday especially as the stationary bndry may linger at least through midweek from Ncntrl/ECntrl TX into SW and Cntrl LA. While the ECMWF/GFS all suggest an active long term period, they both differ on timing and extent of convection, and thus confidence remains low in regards to pops for the upcoming abbreviated work week. Did not make many changes from the NBM pops this week, keeping chance pops across the region. It`s certainly possible that pops will be increased as these events near, especially as mesoscale details are determined with the anticipated convection. The increased cloud cover and convection should also maintain near normal temps through the period. 15 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, hazy DU/FU gathering ahead of a short wave push across AR. Closest convection is now crossing the MS River. SCT low clouds over I-30 now, but maybe too much DU to make a good RA. However, the boundary could pop up a shwr/isold TS - 06Z and will be monitored for amends, best shot from KTXK to KMLU. Gusty SW winds will slack after sundown and decouple 01-04Z with IFR/MVFR 09-13Z for many sites & tempo groups for BR/FG issues for E TX/KSHV. Weak fropa will shift S/SW to N/NE5KT. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 76 95 74 91 / 30 10 10 30 MLU 74 95 70 93 / 30 10 10 20 DEQ 65 93 64 87 / 10 0 10 30 TXK 70 94 69 89 / 20 0 10 30 ELD 72 93 67 90 / 30 0 10 20 TYR 75 95 73 90 / 10 10 10 40 GGG 75 95 71 90 / 20 10 10 30 LFK 75 96 75 93 / 10 20 20 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-059-070-071. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070. LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001-002. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>151. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...24