Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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192 FXUS64 KSHV 261735 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1235 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The early morning convection over NE TX has completely diminished as of mid-morning, although a considerable elevated cigs remain over SW AR/N LA, with additional elevated cigs from ongoing dying convection over Cntrl TX continuing to spread E across Deep E TX and N LA. This complex did leave behind a theta-e bndry indicative of the cooler and much drier air from near and N of the DFW Metroplex into the Mid Red River Valley, with a steep gradient noted in the sfc theta-e fields just NW of the region. In addition, brief wind gusts to 35-40+ kts were observed in wake of the dying convection near and shortly after 12Z across portions of extreme NE TX/Srn AR, with winds having diminished somewhat in their wake. However, given the steep pressure gradient in place ahead of a sfc low centered near PNC as of 15Z, the onset of mixing will result in gusty SSW winds through the afternoon over the Wrn half of the region, where a Wind Advisory is in place. The elevated cigs are expected to continue diminishing/thinning from W to E through the afternoon given the dying convection to our SW, and thus, strong insolation and the warming SSw winds will result in max temps climbing into the lower/mid 90s this afternoon. Unfortunately, it doesn`t appear dewpoints will mix out well again at all, with the higher dewpoints noted over lower E TX eventually mixing back N over NE TX where some slightly drier air was able to mix E from the early morning convection. Will not be making any changes with the existing Heat Advisory in place, although confidence is lower that criteria will be reached over portions of NE TX N of I-20 than areas farther S. Have also removed pops this morning and keeping a dry forecast through the afternoon given the capping that should persist as well as the lack of deep lyr moisture. However, the advance of a weak shortwave trough noted on the morning water vapor imagery over W and NW TX should help reinforce the dryline E this afternoon into Ern OK and portions of NCntrl/extreme NE TX, which may be enough to initiate isolated convection by early evening over portions of NE TX. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 For the 26/18Z TAFs, nearly areawide VFR will prevail this afternoon as departing mid and high level clouds give way to clearing skies from the north and west. Conditions will deteriorate from the west this evening, impacting primarily northwestern portions of the ArkLaTex as a new area of storms develops, most likely bringing impacts to KTXK and KELD. Winds from the south southwest will remain gusty this afternoon at sustained speeds possibly exceeding 15 kts with gusts of up to 25 kts possible. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 75 95 72 93 / 10 0 10 10 MLU 74 95 69 92 / 30 0 10 10 DEQ 67 92 63 88 / 30 0 10 10 TXK 72 94 68 91 / 20 0 10 10 ELD 71 94 66 91 / 40 0 10 10 TYR 74 94 72 92 / 10 0 10 20 GGG 74 94 72 92 / 10 0 10 10 LFK 76 96 73 94 / 10 0 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-059-070-071. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070. LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001-002. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>151. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...26