Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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136 FXUS64 KSHV 261547 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1047 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 The early morning convection over NE TX has completely diminished as of mid-morning, although a considerable elevated cigs remain over SW AR/N LA, with additional elevated cigs from ongoing dying convection over Cntrl TX continuing to spread E across Deep E TX and N LA. This complex did leave behind a theta-e bndry indicative of the cooler and much drier air from near and N of the DFW Metroplex into the Mid Red River Valley, with a steep gradient noted in the sfc theta-e fields just NW of the region. In addition, brief wind gusts to 35-40+ kts were observed in wake of the dying convection near and shortly after 12Z across portions of extreme NE TX/Srn AR, with winds having diminished somewhat in their wake. However, given the steep pressure gradient in place ahead of a sfc low centered near PNC as of 15Z, the onset of mixing will result in gusty SSW winds through the afternoon over the Wrn half of the region, where a Wind Advisory is in place. The elevated cigs are expected to continue diminishing/thinning from W to E through the afternoon given the dying convection to our SW, and thus, strong insolation and the warming SSw winds will result in max temps climbing into the lower/mid 90s this afternoon. Unfortunately, it doesn`t appear dewpoints will mix out well again at all, with the higher dewpoints noted over lower E TX eventually mixing back N over NE TX where some slightly drier air was able to mix E from the early morning convection. Will not be making any changes with the existing Heat Advisory in place, although confidence is lower that criteria will be reached over portions of NE TX N of I-20 than areas farther S. Have also removed pops this morning and keeping a dry forecast through the afternoon given the capping that should persist as well as the lack of deep lyr moisture. However, the advance of a weak shortwave trough noted on the morning water vapor imagery over W and NW TX should help reinforce the dryline E this afternoon into Ern OK and portions of NCntrl/extreme NE TX, which may be enough to initiate isolated convection by early evening over portions of NE TX. Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly. 15 && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 A surface low across Kansas will move east northeast today allowing for an enhanced pressure gradient across the region. South winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph across much of northeast Texas and adjacent areas of north Louisiana and southwest Arkansas. Therefore, a Wind Advisory is in effect for today. Additionally, southerly flow will maintain a moisture rich airmass that, combined with high temperatures in the lower 90s areawide, will allow for heat index values to approach 105 degrees across much of the region. A Heat Advisory is now in effect for much of the region, except for southern Arkansas, through this afternoon and evening. Surface low will shift east into the Great Lakes region late tonight. A trailing cold front will linger across the I-30 corridor this afternoon. A weak shortwave disturbance translating east within a nearly zonal upper-flow pattern will allow for sufficient instability to ignite convection across mainly northeast Texas, south Arkansas, and southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Some storms may be severe with hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes possible. Conditions forecast to improve late tonight into Monday with temperatures ranging from highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Issued at 217 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 An upper-level ridge centered across Mexico will maintain northwest flow aloft across much of the region through the long- term period. Upper-level disturbances translating southeast within the mean flow aloft could support periods of convection each day with the strongest convection on Tuesday night and again on Friday into Friday night. It is not uncommon for late spring and early summer northwest flow convection to be severe in nature, especially if enough low-level moisture is in place to support rapid buoyancy during peak afternoon heating. At this time, there isn`t enough certainty to predict a widespread substantial severe weather threat as me move through the work week, but due to the nature of the synoptic pattern, a few severe storms may be possible. Temperatures through the workweek to range from highs in the mid to upper 80s each day and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 For the 26/12 TAF update, active weather in upstream airspaces and during the day will create multiple durations of MVFR vis/cigs that will make up the majority of the period`s conditions. Strong surface winds above 15 kts are expected through 26/18Z (especially in the western airspace), while MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to return by the end of the period. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 95 72 / 10 10 0 10 MLU 93 74 95 69 / 0 30 0 10 DEQ 91 67 92 63 / 10 30 0 10 TXK 94 72 94 68 / 10 20 0 10 ELD 93 71 94 66 / 10 40 0 10 TYR 93 74 94 72 / 10 10 0 10 GGG 92 74 94 72 / 10 10 0 10 LFK 93 76 96 73 / 10 10 0 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-059-070-071. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ070. LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001-002. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022. OK...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077. TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>151. Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...16