Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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913 FXUS64 KSHV 260539 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1239 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1008 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Warm and breezy evening with air temps still in the low to mid 80s. Our dew points are in the mid to upper 70s and thats where lows will end up. SHV only dropped to 78 last night setting a new record baring a pop up thunderstorm between now and 1 a.m. (midnight standard). Likewise we will see mid to upper 70s to start our Sunday mornings in most cases. We do have and will stick with slight chance pops in our I-30 corridor overnight as a low swings energy across E OK and W AR overnight. So far most of the convection in N OK, but one rouge severe thunderstorm is rolling down the Red River Valley and could outflow assist some new development. No changes to current forecast needed at this time. /24/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 A strong cold front will begin to move into our northern zones by Monday morning before gradually pushing through the rest of the area during the day. It may be slow enough that some severe weather could develop across our southern zones for a change by Monday afternoon. Right now there is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of deep east Texas and central Louisiana. Will need to continue to monitor this potential over the next few days as there remains some uncertainty. I don`t want to say that Monday will be our last chance for severe weather for the upcoming week, but right now it is the last day we are outlooked by the SPC. And by Thursday, they move to a "potential too low" statement for the entire CONUS. That being said, we do still have daily PoPs in the forecast for most of next week, however, thinking that most of that activity will be diurnally driven, hence the lack of outlooks at this time. But with us heading into the dog days of summer at a rapid rate, I am sure we will take all the rain we can get at this time. As for temperatures, we will see some "relief" from the heat for next week. Granted we will still see afternoon highs in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s, but this is "cooler" than the 90s we are seeing right now. In addition, maximum heat index values should remain suppressed for the most part through the upcoming week. /33/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 For the 26/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions largely prevail early this morning except for at KLFK where low stratus has already developed. Elsewhere, cirrus will persist overnight from upstream convection over North Central Texas and Oklahoma. Stratus should return nearly areawide closer to daybreak and linger through mid to late morning before VFR conditions return by the afternoon. Any convection should generally remain isolated through the day today before increasing by around 27/00Z across our northern airspace ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Breezy south winds will increase further throughout today with speeds of 15-20 kts and higher gusts near 25-30 kts. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 75 95 72 / 20 20 0 20 MLU 94 73 94 69 / 10 30 10 20 DEQ 89 66 91 63 / 10 20 0 10 TXK 93 71 93 67 / 10 30 0 20 ELD 92 71 93 65 / 10 30 10 10 TYR 93 74 93 72 / 10 0 10 20 GGG 92 74 94 71 / 10 10 0 20 LFK 94 75 96 72 / 10 0 10 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....33 AVIATION...19