Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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973 FXUS64 KSHV 310607 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 107 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 925 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 A healthy QLCS has developed across Louisiana south of Interstate 20 and is being sustained by an environment characterized by surface-based CAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg. 0-3 km shear vectors along the leading edge of the QLCS have been, at times, been oriented in a way to enhance low-level wind shear resulting in possible QLCS tornadoes throughout the evening. This trend is likely to continue eastward through the remainder of our Louisiana parishes. However, decreasing instability should hopefully result in a gradual weakening of the MCS after midnight. Back to the west PoPs were removed through at least the first part of tonight. However, the next convective complexes are already ongoing to the west in Central and West Texas and Southwest Oklahoma. These will likely begin to impact the forecast area during the pre-dawn hours. CN && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Active weather day this afternoon across our northwest half as ample instability is combining with a very moist atmosphere and upstream forcing from remnant MCV and associated outflow boundary to produce locally heavy downpours mainly near and northwest of the I-30 Corridor. After coordinating with WPC along with neighboring offices to the west and north, have decided to issue a Flood Watch with this afternoon`s package to encompass the northern half of NE TX along the I-20 Corridor and to include Southeast Oklahoma and the western third of SW AR as well with the watch valid through 7 pm tomorrow evening. The players for this event are the above mentioned disturbance moving our way in WNW flow aloft and latest progs and CAMS are in good agreement with another disturbance to follow this one, moving out of the Upper Red River Valley, moving into the Middle Red River Valley and Piney Woods of NE TX after midnight towards sunrise Friday morning, bringing with it additional heavy rainfall. Could easily see two to four inches of rainfall with isolated higher amounts and depending on how much our region sees with this first round of convection through much of the evening, would not be surprised if the Flood Watch may have to be expanded further east and south to encompass more of SW AR, NE TX and maybe even NW LA. What`s not very clear with this forecast is how this current disturbance will influence the size and intensity of the convection associated with the second disturbance by the time it begins moving into our region near or shortly before sunrise on Friday and thus, this will be addressed with future forecasts. Progs are really all over the place on the handling of the above mentioned features but this forecast will follow the HREF which shows a break in the storm coverage beyond Friday Morning across the Flood Watch area with diurnal heating across our remaining area helping to ignite scattered to numerous areas of convection downstream of our current Flood Watch for Friday Afternoon. Not to be forgotten is the wind and hail threats for the remainder of the afternoon and evening as the southern half of NE TX has become very unstable this afternoon and the broken line of convection near the I-20 Corridor of N TX west of TYR will dive southeast with a cold pool progressing southeast and will thus pose at least a severe wind threat. Thus, Severe Thunderstorm Watch #353 is valid through 9PM this evening. Thanks for the coordination today FWD, TSA, LZK, WPC and SPC...prelims to follow...13. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Did not make much in the way of changes to the weekend and early portion of next week forecast. There continues to be weak disturbances embedded in west northwest flow aloft, one that will likely begin impacting our region late Saturday and continue into Sunday. Beyond the weekend, what weak ridging we had to deal with is all but exited our region to the east with additional ridging aloft progd to build north of the Tx Hill Country into the Intermountain West. This will only serve to further enhance northwest flow aloft across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss Valley and as a result, this flow could bring with it additional thunderstorm chances through at least the middle part of next week. Sided with the NBM for now with slight chance to low end chance pops until disturbances in this flow can become better defined. 13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 For the ArkLaTex terminals, MCS working across KELD/KMLU attm with VCTS before ending. Winds there and everywhere are 5KT. The next MCS movg across DFW airspace is beefing up on the previous push`s outflow, so maybe only KLFK yet to ramp up wind and heavy rain in the coming hours. The weakening MCS will continue down I-20 affecting many terminals with showers/BR. We will amend for any thing stronger. The NW flow aloft pattern continues as we look toward early June. More diurnal/nocturnal TS activity to continue. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 85 73 89 / 60 70 20 50 MLU 69 84 69 88 / 70 80 30 50 DEQ 65 84 67 84 / 50 30 20 60 TXK 68 85 70 87 / 70 50 20 60 ELD 67 83 67 86 / 80 60 30 60 TYR 71 85 72 88 / 40 60 20 30 GGG 70 84 71 88 / 60 60 20 40 LFK 72 86 72 88 / 40 70 20 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073. LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022. OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ077. TX...Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126- 136>138-149>153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...24