817
FXUS64 KSJT 110551
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Moist and unstable air mass continues across West Central Texas
this afternoon, with scattered convection already developing
across portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. Very little
movement from the storms, so heavy rainfall the main concern so
far. As we get a little later in the afternoon and a little
warmer, a few of the storms may pulse up and produce some
marginally severe hail.

We will also watch for the possibility of more development of
storms and the formation of another small MCS out to the west that
may move southeast and back across the area this evening and into
early Tuesday morning. Weak upper low continues to spin across
Eastern New Mexico and this is expected to drift southeast into
the area tonight. By Tuesday afternoon, portions of West Central
Texas south of the low may be unstable enough to generate a few
stronger storms that may eventually form into another southeast
moving MCS and roll into the Hill Country.

Finally, more abundant cloud cover will continue to help keep
temperatures in check, mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s across

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Shortwave troughing should still be overhead in the mid-levels by
00Z Wednesday. Ongoing convection across the Big Country from the
afternoon may congeal into an MCS-like feature and move
south/southeast during the evening/overnight hours, mainly impacting
the eastern Big Country, Heartland, and NW Hill Country. With the
shortwave trough still providing some upper level support, storms
will likely be able to maintain themselves through the overnight
hours with ample moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and
pWat values over 1.5 inches for much of the area) and sufficient
instability with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. As these storms move
south out of the Big Country, they will enter an area of much better
wind shear and may be able to organize themselves more effectively.
These storms could be strong to marginally severe with damaging
winds the most likely hazard. While isolated instances of large hail
will be possible, it`s much more likely that these storms will
instead produce lots of heavy rainfall and potentially some small
hail. Given that our eastern counties saw above to well-above
average rainfall this past spring, these areas will be a bit more
susceptible to flash flooding with these storms as they are expected
to be very efficient rainfall producers. As the shortwave begins to
move east through the day on Wednesday into east Texas, chances for
rain across our southeastern counties will begin to wane and skies
will begin to clear. It will still feel mild and muggy across the
area on Wednesday with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

By Thursday, an upper level high will begin to build into the
Southern Rockies with ridging extending into Texas. This will
essentially shut off our rain chances and bring us back into last
weeks pattern: warm and muggy across our eastern counties, hotter
and drier to the west. Temperatures will be on an upward trend
through the weekend with highs climbing back into the upper 90s to
low 100s by Sunday and Monday as the 850 mb thermal ridge slowly
begins to drift east. The upper level ridge will weaken and shift
east by this weekend but should still keep any activity north of our
area in the Panhandle. The latest CPC 6-10 Day Temperature and
Precipitation Outlooks show above average temperatures and below
average rainfall for our area so the hot and dry pattern should be
anticipated through at least mid-next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Expect mainly VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. A few hours of
MVFR ceilings are possible at the terminals, especially KABI for a
few hours Tuesday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible
across much of the area Tuesday afternoon and early evening and
have thunder at all the terminals. The winds will be light besides
variable/gusty around storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     67  87  69  93 /  40  10   0   0
San Angelo  69  91  71  97 /  30  10   0   0
Junction    70  91  71  95 /  30  10   0   0
Brownwood   68  86  69  91 /  50  10   0   0
Sweetwater  68  88  71  95 /  30   0   0   0
Ozona       69  91  71  95 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       69  85  70  90 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...21