Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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386 FXUS64 KSJT 110000 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Moist and unstable air mass continues across West Central Texas this afternoon, with scattered convection already developing across portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. Very little movement from the storms, so heavy rainfall the main concern so far. As we get a little later in the afternoon and a little warmer, a few of the storms may pulse up and produce some marginally severe hail. We will also watch for the possibility of more development of storms and the formation of another small MCS out to the west that may move southeast and back across the area this evening and into early Tuesday morning. Weak upper low continues to spin across Eastern New Mexico and this is expected to drift southeast into the area tonight. By Tuesday afternoon, portions of West Central Texas south of the low may be unstable enough to generate a few stronger storms that may eventually form into another southeast moving MCS and roll into the Hill Country. Finally, more abundant cloud cover will continue to help keep temperatures in check, mainly in the mid 80s to lower 90s across && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Shortwave troughing should still be overhead in the mid-levels by 00Z Wednesday. Ongoing convection across the Big Country from the afternoon may congeal into an MCS-like feature and move south/southeast during the evening/overnight hours, mainly impacting the eastern Big Country, Heartland, and NW Hill Country. With the shortwave trough still providing some upper level support, storms will likely be able to maintain themselves through the overnight hours with ample moisture (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pWat values over 1.5 inches for much of the area) and sufficient instability with 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. As these storms move south out of the Big Country, they will enter an area of much better wind shear and may be able to organize themselves more effectively. These storms could be strong to marginally severe with damaging winds the most likely hazard. While isolated instances of large hail will be possible, it`s much more likely that these storms will instead produce lots of heavy rainfall and potentially some small hail. Given that our eastern counties saw above to well-above average rainfall this past spring, these areas will be a bit more susceptible to flash flooding with these storms as they are expected to be very efficient rainfall producers. As the shortwave begins to move east through the day on Wednesday into east Texas, chances for rain across our southeastern counties will begin to wane and skies will begin to clear. It will still feel mild and muggy across the area on Wednesday with temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s. By Thursday, an upper level high will begin to build into the Southern Rockies with ridging extending into Texas. This will essentially shut off our rain chances and bring us back into last weeks pattern: warm and muggy across our eastern counties, hotter and drier to the west. Temperatures will be on an upward trend through the weekend with highs climbing back into the upper 90s to low 100s by Sunday and Monday as the 850 mb thermal ridge slowly begins to drift east. The upper level ridge will weaken and shift east by this weekend but should still keep any activity north of our area in the Panhandle. The latest CPC 6-10 Day Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks show above average temperatures and below average rainfall for our area so the hot and dry pattern should be anticipated through at least mid-next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A few showers and thunderstorms have occurred in mainly the eastern half of the area during the late afternoon into early evening, but were dissipating as of 645 PM. Other scattered thunderstorms have developed across West Texas (from north and west of Lubbock to north of Pecos), and were moving east. These storms could consolidate into a MCS and overspread the Big Country and Concho Valley overnight. These could affect KABI and KSJT in the 03Z-06Z time frame. Will monitor radar trends and amend TAFs as needed. With a shortwave upper trough and weak upper low moving into the area, could have redevelopment of showers and storms late tonight into Tuesday morning, mainly in northern and central parts of the area. Potential for additional storm development farther south toward Brady and Junction possible in the afternoon. Brief reductions in ceilings/visibilities possible in locally heavy rain accompanying the convection. Gusty winds possible with outflow boundaries associated with the convection. Otherwise, winds will be variable in direction under 10 knots, with VFR conditions. Could have patchy low cloud development into some of the Big Country and the KABI site late tonight into mid- morning Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 84 67 87 / 40 50 40 20 San Angelo 69 91 69 90 / 40 30 30 10 Junction 70 93 70 90 / 20 30 30 20 Brownwood 70 84 68 85 / 20 50 50 30 Sweetwater 69 85 68 88 / 50 60 30 10 Ozona 68 92 69 91 / 30 20 10 10 Brady 70 86 69 85 / 20 40 40 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...19