533
FXUS64 KSJT 101103
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
603 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Early this morning, an area of convection is currently exiting
Kimble county to the southeast. A weak frontal boundary will stall
over the area today in the vicinity of the Concho Valley and
Heartland area. The front will remain a focus for additional
showers and thunderstorms later today during peak heating. The
airmass later this afternoon will become moderately unstable and
mostly uncapped, with deep layer shear between 25 and 30 kts.
Storms could develop just about anywhere across the area this
afternoon and evening, with a threat for large hail and strong
winds, especially with any storms that form along the
aforementioned stalled front. In addition, precipitable water
values will range between 1.5 and 1.75 inches across the area,
which will contribute to heavy downpours and a threat for some
localized flooding. Will maintain a medium chance for
precipitation today, decreasing to a low chance this evening.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this
afternoon and early evening ahead of a prominent shortwave/weak
low tracking east across New Mexico. These storms may form into a
complex and track southeast across the the area late tonight,
primarily across the Big Country with an attendant wind/hail
threat. Temperatures will be considerably cooler today, with highs
ranging from the low to mid 80s north of the front across the Big
Country, to the upper 80s to near 90 south of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Northwest flow will continue across West Central Texas through
Tuesday and into early Wednesday, with models continuing to show
shower and isolated thunderstorm development through Tuesday night
and into early Wednesday. Once the upper-level shortwave trough
exits the area to our southeast by late Wednesday morning, the
upper-level ridge begins to build back across West Central Texas
through the remainder of the week and next weekend. Temperatures
are expected to gradually climb to above normals conditions by
that later part of the week, with afternoon high temperatures
reaching into the mid 90s to 102 by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

MVFR ceilings will affect the KABI terminal through mid to late
morning before lifting to VFR. Widely scattered convection is
possible this afternoon but some uncertainty exists regarding
placement/timing and will only include VCTS for now. Additional
convection is possible overnight but confidence is currently too
low to mention this forecasy cycle. Expected mainly light
northeast winds through tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     84  69  84  68 /  40  30  50  40
San Angelo  90  69  91  70 /  30  30  30  30
Junction    92  71  93  71 /  40  20  20  20
Brownwood   87  70  85  68 /  40  20  30  40
Sweetwater  84  68  86  68 /  40  30  50  30
Ozona       89  70  93  70 /  30  20  20  20
Brady       87  70  86  70 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24