797
FXUS64 KSJT 091729
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Hot temperatures will persists across the area again today,
before a fairly significant cool down occurs on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach from the north today and is expected to
drift south into the Big Country this evening, possibly reaching
as far south as the Concho Valley and Heartland towards daybreak
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas late this
afternoon and early evening, within a weakly capped and unstable
airmass.

Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along the
southward moving front overnight from west Texas into our area,
aided by several disturbances moving east from the southern
Rockies. Some of the latest CAMs show a complex of storms
developing across the Permian Basin and tracking southeast across
the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau during the late
evening/overnight hours, with additional storms developing farther
north along the front. Flow aloft will remain weak through
tonight which will limit the severe potential, although a few
stronger storms may result in isolated large hail/damaging winds.
In addition, PW values will be around 1.5 inches, which may result
in some pockets of heavier rainfall and possibly some localized
flooding. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid/upper 90s
over eastern sections, to the upper 90s/low 100s across western
sections. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances will carry-over into Monday and
Tuesday this week as an upper-level shortwave trough tracks across
West Central Texas through Tuesday evening. This additional
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for some cooler
temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon high temperatures
reaching into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s as well. A warming trend
will begin mid-week as ridging aloft begins to build back over
the area, bringing warmer and drier conditions back to the area
through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. High
temperatures by the end of the week will be back in the mid 90s to
around 102.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. Isolated storms
may develop across our western counties late this afternoon but
coverage is expected to remain low and uncertainty in the location
of development precludes a prevailing group so have gone with VCTS
groupings for KSJT and KSOA. The better chances for showers and
storms will be overnight from a complex expected to develop over
eastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin before moving east. Have
included PROB30 groups for KSJT and KSOA based on latest hi-res
guidance as confidence in how well this complex holds together has
varied from run to run. This is also the reasoning for leaving
VCTS/SH for the terminals further east. MVFR stratus is expected
to drop south and impact the KABI terminal late overnight and
through the morning hours tomorrow but progress of this cloud deck
should stall before reaching KSJT and KBBD. Winds will shift to a
more easterly direction this afternoon before shifting to a more
northerly direction late overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     70  87  68  88 /  40  50  20  30
San Angelo  70  90  69  94 /  40  50  20  20
Junction    71  93  71  94 /  30  40  20  10
Brownwood   71  87  68  88 /  20  30  20  20
Sweetwater  70  85  68  89 /  60  50  20  30
Ozona       70  90  68  94 /  30  40  20  10
Brady       70  87  70  89 /  20  40  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...50