645
FXUS64 KSJT 112317
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
617 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Line of showers and thunderstorms, associated with an outflow
boundary from earlier storms...extended along a Menard to Mason
to San Saba line early this afternoon. Movement was southeast.

These storms will slowly develop southeast toward Junction this
afternoon. The SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from
Sonora to Junction to Mason this afternoon/evening...where SBCAPES
are around 2000 J/KG and 0-6 KM shears around 35 KTS. An isolated
severe storm possible. Main hazards are damaging winds and large
hail. Could also see a strong/possible severe storm from Big Lake
to Ozona to Sonora...where a outflow boundary and enhanced
cumulus is visible.

Elsewhere, just to the north of Haskell is a nearly stationary
MVC. This may kick off isolated thunderstorms through this
evening in the Big Country, and possibly into Wednesday. Kept a
mention of isolated thunderstorms in east/southeastern section of
the county warning area Wednesday, with remnant outflow
boundaries and afternoon heating.

Clouds temporarily return late tonight as a moist boundary layer
is in place. This will scatter out mid to late morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest will
slowly shift east, toward West Central Texas into the weekend,
resulting in drier conditions and a steady increase in temperatures.
Highs on Thursday will be in the low 90s to upper 90s, with highs
this weekend in the mid 90s to near 100. Even hotter temperatures
are forecast for the start of next week, with highs in the upper 90s
to 102 for most locations. Overnight lows will generally be in the
70s. Unfortunately, dry conditions look to persist into the first
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Thunderstorms have ended across the area, so have removed mention
of thunder from all TAF locations for this update. Expecting MVFR
ceilings to return between 10Z and 12Z for all locations. KSJT
should have only a brief time with low clouds, while areas to the
southeast will have lingering low ceilings until 14-15Z. Light
east winds will become more southeasterly by morning. May see a
shower or two return for JCT area tomorrow afternoon, but
uncertainty is still too high to include in the TAF at this time.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  68  87  70 /  70  10   0   0
San Angelo  91  69  92  72 /  40  10  10   0
Junction    92  70  90  72 /  30  20  20   0
Brownwood   84  68  86  69 /  50  20  20   0
Sweetwater  85  68  89  71 /  60  10   0   0
Ozona       92  69  92  71 /  30  10  10   0
Brady       84  69  84  71 /  70  20  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...08