321
FXUS64 KSJT 282101
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
401 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Latest radar imagery shows strong to severe storms have developed
along the outflow boundary/dry-line intersection in the Permian
Basin, with strongest storms in the vicinity of Upton/Crane/Pecos
and extreme western Crockett Counties. Storm movement will be
eastward, meaning that storms should push east of the boundary
towards western Concho Valley and further into Crockett County, if
they can maintain their strength. The environment east of the
boundary is comprised of strong instability (3000+ J/KG of SB
CAPE) and strong shear (50+ kt of effective shear and 100-300
m2/s2 of effective SRH), which is favorable for super-cellular
structures. However, the latest SPC Mesoanalysis does show some
Convective Inhibition (CIN), so that could inhibit the maintenance
of some storms. Latest WoFS guidance indicates the best potential
for severe hail (potentially 2+ inches) and winds (potentially 70+
mph) will be across western and southern Crockett County as it
brings the current supercell thats located west of Iraan
southeast into that region. Tornado potential continues to look
low, as the low level shear isnt very favorable, but it cannot be
ruled out either.

SJH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

This afternoon, a very messy convective situation has unfolded.  An
outflow boundary, produced by this morning`s thunderstorm complex
over north Texas, was moving southwestward through the Concho
Valley. Meanwhile, a dryline was also located over the Permian
Basin.  These two features should help to initiate thunderstorms
this afternoon in what is left of the warm, moist sector over the
Edwards Plateau.  Behind the outflow boundary, temperatures and
dewpoints have started to recover, shown by some areas warming back
up to the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s.  As storms develop
over the Trans-Pecos region this afternoon, they should push
eastward through the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau this evening,
thanks to an approaching upper-level wave.  After sunset, an
additional round of thunderstorms looks likely to develop over the
South Plains around Lubbock and push eastward into the Big Country.
Storms could still produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Tomorrow, the worked-over airmass looks to hold down the
temperatures to the 80 to 90 degree range.  Nevertheless, dewpoints
should still be in the mid 60s to around 70, with yet another weak
mid-level wave expected to move through.  CAPE values tomorrow
should range from 2000-4000 J/kg.  The best storm coverage appears to
be from the Concho Valley southwestward to the Big Bend area where
CAPE values are highest.  Hail and some strong winds will be
possible with this activity, given the decent shear values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The atmosphere will be unstable Thursday and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and
overnight. The best potential will be late evening in the Big
Country as a possible MCS moves southeast from the Texas
Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds possible along with
localized flooding.

The moist unstable atmosphere will stay over the region into next
week. While storm coverage may be more isolated Friday, another
storm complex may develop along the dryline out west Saturday
afternoon and move east east through the region Saturday
evening/night. Sunday into Tuesday, storms looks again to be more
isolated, but certainly a few storms may develop along a dryline
in the Permian Basin then move east. Temperature-wise, highs will
be mainly in the 80s Big Country into Sunday with lower to mid 90s
to the south. Highs in the 90s are expected across the region
Monday into Tuesday with reading around 100 in the Concho Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Outflow boundary near KSOA, heading southwest, has left strong
east winds gusting between 30 and 40 KTS across terminals. These
will gradually weaken this afternoon, but should remain gusty
until early evening. Thunderstorms developing out west, may
affect KSJT and KSOA mainly after 00Z, and KBBD and KJCT later
after 02Z. Storms may also affect KABI late evening. MVFR stratus
otherwise returns late tonight and early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     65  83  69  87 /  60  40  30  40
San Angelo  66  88  71  92 /  60  40  20  30
Junction    68  91  72  93 /  70  30  20  10
Brownwood   65  83  69  84 /  60  40  40  30
Sweetwater  65  83  69  88 /  50  40  20  40
Ozona       67  91  71  92 /  50  30  10  10
Brady       66  83  69  86 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04