331
FXUS64 KSJT 290525
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1225 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

This afternoon, a very messy convective situation has unfolded.  An
outflow boundary, produced by this morning`s thunderstorm complex
over north Texas, was moving southwestward through the Concho
Valley. Meanwhile, a dryline was also located over the Permian
Basin.  These two features should help to initiate thunderstorms
this afternoon in what is left of the warm, moist sector over the
Edwards Plateau.  Behind the outflow boundary, temperatures and
dewpoints have started to recover, shown by some areas warming back
up to the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s.  As storms develop
over the Trans-Pecos region this afternoon, they should push
eastward through the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau this evening,
thanks to an approaching upper-level wave.  After sunset, an
additional round of thunderstorms looks likely to develop over the
South Plains around Lubbock and push eastward into the Big Country.
Storms could still produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Tomorrow, the worked-over airmass looks to hold down the
temperatures to the 80 to 90 degree range.  Nevertheless, dewpoints
should still be in the mid 60s to around 70, with yet another weak
mid-level wave expected to move through.  CAPE values tomorrow
should range from 2000-4000 J/kg.  The best storm coverage appears to
be from the Concho Valley southwestward to the Big Bend area where
CAPE values are highest.  Hail and some strong winds will be
possible with this activity, given the decent shear values.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The atmosphere will be unstable Thursday and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon and
overnight. The best potential will be late evening in the Big
Country as a possible MCS moves southeast from the Texas
Panhandle. Large hail and damaging winds possible along with
localized flooding.

The moist unstable atmosphere will stay over the region into next
week. While storm coverage may be more isolated Friday, another
storm complex may develop along the dryline out west Saturday
afternoon and move east east through the region Saturday
evening/night. Sunday into Tuesday, storms looks again to be more
isolated, but certainly a few storms may develop along a dryline
in the Permian Basin then move east. Temperature-wise, highs will
be mainly in the 80s Big Country into Sunday with lower to mid 90s
to the south. Highs in the 90s are expected across the region
Monday into Tuesday with reading around 100 in the Concho Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Convection has shifted east of the area early this morning,
leaving mostly gusty winds and high clouds across the area. There
is more convection across the South plains that is moving
generally this direction but it may not make this far south
before it dissipates. Will leave out for now. Likely to see
scattered convection again develop this afternoon and evening, but
so much uncertainty where and when that might happen that its not
worth putting in the aviation forecasts at this point. Otherwise,
some patchy low cloud formation likely by sunrise, with it
lifting and dissipating by mid to late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     82  67  88  66 /  40  20  40  50
San Angelo  92  71  95  68 /  30  10  30  30
Junction    94  72  96  69 /  30  20  20  30
Brownwood   82  68  86  68 /  30  20  30  50
Sweetwater  83  68  91  67 /  30  20  40  40
Ozona       92  71  93  68 /  20  10  10  20
Brady       84  70  88  68 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...07