458
FXUS64 KSJT 111839
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
139 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

The latest radar imagery indicates storms over the southern Permain
Basin, moving east. A few storms are strong but remaining below
severe levels. These storms are located on the south side of a slow
moving upper level low moving slowly east-southeast across the
South Plains.

The combination of lift associated from the upper low, abundant
moisture(PW values 1.5 to 2 inches) and mesoscale outflow boundaries
will result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms today and this
evening. The Hi-Res models indicated best coverage of storms across
the southern half of the area. A few severe storms are possible this
afternoon and evening along and south of a San Angelo to Brownwood
line due to localized moderate instability and good effective
shear(moderate mid and upper level flow). The main hazards will be
large hail, damaging winds and dangerous lightning. Also, locally
heavy rainfall may produce localized flooding. The coverage of
convection should be mainly isolated after midnight. Expect warm and
humid conditions today and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

An upper level ridge centered across the Desert Southwest will
slowly shift east, toward West Central Texas into the weekend,
resulting in drier conditions and a steady increase in temperatures.
Highs on Thursday will be in the low 90s to upper 90s, with highs
this weekend in the mid 90s to near 100. Even hotter temperatures
are forecast for the start of next week, with highs in the upper 90s
to 102 for most locations. Overnight lows will generally be in the
70s. Unfortunately, dry conditions look to persist into the first
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Main focus for thunderstorms will be KBBD and KJCT today as
thunderstorm outflow boundaries from south of San Angelo to Brady
push south the I-10 corridor...to KSOA and KJCT. Gusty winds and
temporary reduction of visibilities to IFR possible A few isolated
thunderstorms, however may affect KABI and KSJT with surface
heating this afternoon. MVFR stratus otherwise returns late
tonight, rising or scattering out to VFR mid morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     68  87  70  93 /  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  69  92  72  97 /  20  10   0   0
Junction    70  90  72  96 /  40  20   0   0
Brownwood   68  86  69  91 /  30  20   0   0
Sweetwater  68  89  71  96 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       69  92  71  96 /  20  10   0   0
Brady       69  84  71  91 /  30  20   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...04