Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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278 FXUS64 KSJT 100005 AAA AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service San Angelo TX 705 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 As of 2PM, we are already seeing an area of agitated cumulus across the Concho Valley and the NW Hill Country with a few weak attempts at convective initiation. This is a bit earlier and further south/east than hi-resolution guidance was indicating but with a weak area of deep moisture convergence in this area based on latest mesoanalysis and temperatures in the mid 90s approaching the ConvT in the area, these attempts make sense. With only modest instability across the area and weak shear in the lowest 6 km, this activity will likely be very pulsey in nature and will likely not pose much of a severe threat. These storms could produce some heavy downpours (thanks to areal PWat values in the 1-1.5 inch range) and be slow moving with weak steering flow. Some isolated instances of hail with these storms will be possible. The main area of storm development is expected to occur west of our CWA, closer to the surface low in eastern New Mexico and the Permian Basin later this afternoon and evening. Again, with weak shear, these storms are expected to grow upscale into a complex of storms and move east/southeast into our area overnight. There has been a noted lack of run-to-run consistency in hi-res guidance as to how well this complex remains organized as it moves east. Because of this, have capped PoPs in the chance category for the overnight hours. A cold front will make progress through the area tonight which will help to knock low temperatures down a few degrees from where they have been the past few days into the upper 60s to low 70s. Scattered showers and storms will continue through tomorrow with a largely uncapped atmosphere and weak flow aloft. There may be a slight increase in upper level support with increased northwest mid-level flow on the backside of the upper low in eastern New Mexico by tomorrow afternoon which could enhance development. Have broad-brushed PoPs for tomorrow based on uncertainty in location and coverage. It will likely not be raining everywhere the entire day but further refinements will need to be made with the next forecast package. With the chances for rain and cloud cover expected, temperatures will be much cooler in the 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Northwest flow will continue across West Central Texas through Tuesday and into early Wednesday, with CAMs like the NAMNest showing several clusters of storms through Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Will continue to show some chance of showers and storms into early Wednesday. Models continue to show the upper level ridge axis building east into Oklahoma ans cutting off the northwest flow across West Central Texas. Thickness values will rise and temperatures will climb so that highs will start to climb above normal readings by Thursday and will continue through the weekend. Highs in the mid 90s in the higher RH across the Heartland, to a few degrees above the 100 degree mark across the Concho Valley. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 704 PM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Showers and thunderstorms developed in the afternoon across the Concho Valley southeast into Mason County. Subsequent outflow boundary has moved west of the Concho Valley, where a multicell cluster of storms has developed in the eastern Permian Basin. As a result of the earlier convection, the environment has been stabilized in this part of our forecast area early this evening. Other storms along southern portion of outflow boundary were moving through Junction. Farther to the north, isolated to scattered showers and storms were occurring near a weak cold frontal boundary, sagging south into the northern Big Country. Our area has a chance for showers and thunderstorms through Monday and Monday night, with hi-res model indications for scattered multicell clusters of showers/storms. However, confidence is low in placement and timing with showers/storms, with considerable inconsistency in the hi-res models. Carrying VCSH late tonight into Monday morning, and will monitor subsequent model and radar trends for inclusion of TSRA. The aforementioned weak cold front will move farther south across our area overnight, with northeast winds following its passage. Our northern counties (including the KABI TAF site) should have low cloud development late tonight and Monday morning, with MVFR ceilings. Otherwise, outside of convective activity, expect VFR conditions to prevail at our other TAF sites. Where the showers and storms occur, brief reductions in visibility and ceiling will be possible in locally heavy. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 85 68 88 / 50 40 20 30 San Angelo 70 90 69 94 / 50 40 20 20 Junction 70 90 71 94 / 30 40 20 10 Brownwood 71 86 68 88 / 30 40 20 20 Sweetwater 70 85 68 89 / 60 40 20 30 Ozona 68 89 68 94 / 30 30 20 10 Brady 70 87 70 89 / 40 40 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...19