006
FXUS64 KSJT 091146
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
646 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Hot temperatures will persists across the area again today,
before a fairly significant cool down occurs on Monday. A weak
cold front will approach from the north today and is expected to
drift south into the Big Country this evening, possibly reaching
as far south as the Concho Valley and Heartland towards daybreak
Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas late this
afternoon and early evening, within a weakly capped and unstable
airmass.

Additional showers and storms are expected to develop along the
southward moving front overnight from west Texas into our area,
aided by several disturbances moving east from the southern
Rockies. Some of the latest CAMs show a complex of storms
developing across the Permian Basin and tracking southeast across
the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau during the late
evening/overnight hours, with additional storms developing farther
north along the front. Flow aloft will remain weak through
tonight which will limit the severe potential, although a few
stronger storms may result in isolated large hail/damaging winds.
In addition, PW values will be around 1.5 inches, which may result
in some pockets of heavier rainfall and possibly some localized
flooding. Highs this afternoon will range from the mid/upper 90s
over eastern sections, to the upper 90s/low 100s across western
sections. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Showers and thunderstorm chances will carry-over into Monday and
Tuesday this week as an upper-level shortwave trough tracks across
West Central Texas through Tuesday evening. This additional
precipitation and cloud cover will allow for some cooler
temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with afternoon high temperatures
reaching into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Overnight low temperatures
will fall into the upper 60s to mid 70s as well. A warming trend
will begin mid-week as ridging aloft begins to build back over
the area, bringing warmer and drier conditions back to the area
through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. High
temperatures by the end of the week will be back in the mid 90s to
around 102.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Stratus with temporary MVFR ceilings will affect the KJCT
terminal through mid morning, otherwise VFR conditions are
expected today. A cold front will drift south across the area this
evening and overnight, with scattered convection developing. Will
include PROB30 groups this forecast cycle, with the best chance
for thunderstorms after 05Z. Expect light south to southeast winds
this morning, becoming light easterly this afternoon. Winds will
shift to light northerly following the front overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  70  87  69 /  10  40  50  30
San Angelo 101  70  90  70 /  20  40  50  30
Junction   100  71  93  71 /  10  30  40  20
Brownwood   94  71  87  69 /   0  20  30  20
Sweetwater  99  70  85  69 /  20  60  50  30
Ozona       98  70  90  69 /  10  30  40  30
Brady       94  70  87  70 /  10  20  40  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...24