794
FXUS64 KSJT 080641
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
141 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

High pressure aloft centered over West Central Texas will begin to
slowly shift to the southeast today, gradually shifting southerly
flow aloft to a more southwesterly fetch across the area. This
will keep warm and dry conditions across the region through the
short-term forecast, with afternoon high temperatures ranging in
the mid 90s to near 102 and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.
These southerly winds are expected to become breezy later this
morning and into the early evening hours, ranging from 10 to 20
mph with some gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

The upper level ridge responsible for our recent hot and dry
pattern will begin to break down late Saturday into Sunday and
will shift east into the Southeastern CONUS. A weak frontal
boundary is expected to drop into the Red River region by early
Sunday. With ample daytime heating, this front isn`t expected to
make much in the way of progress through the day but will begin to
sag south into our area late Sunday afternoon and evening. With
an increase in upper level support as shortwave impulses in the
west to northwest flow aloft pass overhead, showers and storms are
expected to develop generally along and north of the frontal
boundary. The best rain chances currently look to be between 00Z
Monday and 06Z Tuesday for the Big Country. There will be plenty
of instability to work with Monday afternoon with MLCAPE values
over 1500 J/kg and effective shear in the 30-40 kt range. Chances
for showers and storms continue into Tuesday but with the frontal
boundary well to our north and east by then, a lack of low level
convergence makes nailing down location of development a little
more complicated. Have kept PoPs largely confined to the Big
Country and Heartland where upper level support will be better.
Temperatures will be "coolest" on Monday with highs ranging from
the mid 80s in the Big Country to the mid 90s along the I-10
corridor. Temperatures will be a touch higher for Tuesday but
still comparable.

Moving into midweek, another upper level ridge begins to build
into the Southern Rockies, with its western periphery extending
into West Texas. This will work to limit/cut off rain chances
through the end of the work week and start us back on a warming
trend. The end of next week will be a similar pattern to what
we`re currently seeing with highs in mid 90s for our eastern
counties thanks to mid 60+ dewpoints and 100-104 in our western
counties with mid 50s to low 60s dew points.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Saturday night.
Breezy southerly winds have started to become light and variable,
and will become breezy out of the south again by mid-morning.
These breezy winds will range from 10 to 15 knots with gusts as
high as 25 knots, and last into the early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    100  75  98  71 /   0   0  10  40
San Angelo 102  74 101  72 /   0   0  10  30
Junction   100  73  99  73 /   0   0  10  20
Brownwood   96  71  94  71 /   0   0   0  20
Sweetwater 101  76  99  70 /   0   0  10  40
Ozona       97  74  97  72 /   0   0   0  20
Brady       96  71  94  72 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...TP