Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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300 FXUS64 KSJT 080507 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1207 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The center of upper level high pressure will slowly move east, bringing the region into weak southwest flow aloft Saturday. West Central Texas, however, will still be dominated by the upper high pressure with warm and dry conditions. Highs in the upper 90s to 102 are expected with the warmest temperatures in the Big Country, Concho Valley, and around Junction. Dew points will not be as high, Saturday, with 60s falling into the 50s in the afternoon. This will keep heat indices mainly in the 90s. Southerly winds will be breezy at times, particularly in the Big Country, where gusts of 30 mph possible. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 The upper level ridge responsible for our recent hot and dry pattern will begin to break down late Saturday into Sunday and will shift east into the Southeastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is expected to drop into the Red River region by early Sunday. With ample daytime heating, this front isn`t expected to make much in the way of progress through the day but will begin to sag south into our area late Sunday afternoon and evening. With an increase in upper level support as shortwave impulses in the west to northwest flow aloft pass overhead, showers and storms are expected to develop generally along and north of the frontal boundary. The best rain chances currently look to be between 00Z Monday and 06Z Tuesday for the Big Country. There will be plenty of instability to work with Monday afternoon with MLCAPE values over 1500 J/kg and effective shear in the 30-40 kt range. Chances for showers and storms continue into Tuesday but with the frontal boundary well to our north and east by then, a lack of low level convergence makes nailing down location of development a little more complicated. Have kept PoPs largely confined to the Big Country and Heartland where upper level support will be better. Temperatures will be "coolest" on Monday with highs ranging from the mid 80s in the Big Country to the mid 90s along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will be a touch higher for Tuesday but still comparable. Moving into midweek, another upper level ridge begins to build into the Southern Rockies, with its western periphery extending into West Texas. This will work to limit/cut off rain chances through the end of the work week and start us back on a warming trend. The end of next week will be a similar pattern to what we`re currently seeing with highs in mid 90s for our eastern counties thanks to mid 60+ dewpoints and 100-104 in our western counties with mid 50s to low 60s dew points. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 PM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions are expected to persist through Saturday night. Breezy southerly winds have started to become light and variable, and will become breezy out of the south again by mid-morning. These breezy winds will range from 10 to 15 knots with gusts as high as 25 knots, and last into the early evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 76 100 75 98 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 74 102 74 101 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 71 100 73 99 / 0 0 0 10 Brownwood 72 96 71 94 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 76 101 76 99 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 71 97 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 72 96 71 94 / 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....50 AVIATION...TP