Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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545 FXUS64 KSJT 030812 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 312 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...Isolated severe thunderstorms possible across portions of west central Texas this afternoon and evening... ...Heat index values approaching Heat Advisory criteria across portions of the northwest Hill Country and the Heartland this afternoon... A weak 500mb shortwave trough will move across northwest Texas this afternoon. At the surface...the dryline will be just to the west of the CWA. This will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms to develop as the dryline moves into the western portions of the CWA this afternoon into this evening. SPC currently has a marginal risk of severe weather for today along and east of a line from Sweetwater to west of San Angelo to midway between Sonora and Ozona. In addition...there is a slight risk of severe weather across northeast portions of the Big Country. The main severe weather hazards are large hail and damaging winds but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Also...there is a risk of two inch or larger size hail across portions of Haskell and Throckmorton counties. Rain chances will be slight across northeast and southeast portions of the CWA this afternoon and evening but anything that develops will have the potential to be severe. Temperatures this afternoon will reach 100 degrees across western portions of the CWA with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s across the eastern portions. However...with dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s across the eastern portions of the CWA this afternoon...heat index values will approach Heat Advisory criteria across portions of the northwest Hill Country and the Heartland this afternoon. Have issued an SPS to highlight the potential for excessive heat across those areas. If temperatures or heat index values exceed 105 degrees this afternoon...a Heat Advisory will likely be needed later today. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...Above Normal Temperatures Expected This Week... An upper level ridge will sit over the western U.S. (including our area) through the long term, allowing for above normal and potentially record breaking heat for this week. High temperature records could be broken on Tuesday, with temperatures and heat index values above 105 for much of our area south of the Big Country. The current records for June 4th are 101 (set in 2013) for Abilene and 107 (set in 1916) fro San Angelo. The forecast highs for the 4th are 103 and 106 respectively. As a surface low situates itself to our west/southwest on Wednesday, winds will turn from the west/southwest to the east/southeast. This will keep surface temperatures cooler on Wednesday compared to Tuesday, due to the lack of downsloping winds. However, with southeasterly winds comes increased moisture and higher apparent temperatures. So even though the actual temperature is forecast to be lower, the heat index will likely be similar if not higher for some areas on Wednesday and Thursday. It is worth noting that portions of West Central Texas are forecast to reach the extreme threshold in both WBGT and Heat risk for the afternoons of Tuesday through Thursday. Heat advisories and possibly even an excessive heat warning might be needed. The ridge will help to suppress convective activity, but there are still a few chances for rain. A few disturbances will move through the flow aloft over the next week thanks to a shortwave over the northern U.S. and an upper low to our southwest. The best rain chances over the next week will be late this weekend and early next week, but precipitation chances are still on the lower end for now. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Satellite images indicate mostly high clouds moving across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA late tonight. Ceilings were near 5500ft at KBBD to near 6000ft at KBWD. Expect MVFR to near IFR conditions to develop early Monday morning across portions of the northern Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country as low clouds develop overnight with the relatively light southeast winds bringing moisture into the southern portions of the CWA. Low clouds should begin to lift and burn off after 15Z Monday as diurnal heating allows mixing to increase. The pressure gradient will increase across northwest Texas Monday afternoon && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 94 72 102 73 / 20 0 0 0 San Angelo 100 72 106 74 / 10 10 0 0 Junction 99 74 103 74 / 20 20 10 10 Brownwood 92 72 98 72 / 20 20 0 10 Sweetwater 100 72 103 72 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 98 72 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 92 74 99 72 / 20 20 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...61