585
FXUS64 KSJT 021904
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...Isolated to widely scattered storms possible again...

Severe convection is currently moving south into the Big Country
as of 2 PM this afternoon. This cluster of storms will likely lay
down an outflow boundary, while moving south. Outside of that, the
dryline will again tighten up to our west as shortwave energy
moves into west and west central Texas. Currently, surface based
CAPEs range from 3500 J/kg to as high as 5500 J/kg, and effective
bulk shear values generally 35 knots to 45 knots. With these
conditions, generally any storm that does develop will have a good
chance of strengthening to severe levels, and be capable of
producing hail over 2 inches in diameter, as well as wind gusts
over 60 mph. In addition, any storms that interact with any
outflow boundaries available will pose at least a small tornado
threat.

Outside of the storms just north of our area, expect dryline
storms to develop by late afternoon or early evening. HRRR
develops convection from the Caprock south into the northern
Permian Basin by late afternoon which then moves east into our Big
Country during the late evening hours. We could also see the
small complex of storms moving into Haskell and Throckmorton
counties right now continue south/southeastward into the eastern
Big Country during the late afternoon and early evening.

Outside of the thunderstorms, it will be another warm and muggy
night, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with temperatures
warming several degrees tomorrow. Highs will range from the mid
90s to around 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

For Monday evening, isolated thunderstorms are possible, if the
cap can be eroded, across mainly the Heartland and Northwest Hill
Country. A few storms may be severe with the main hazards being
large hail and damaging winds.

Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this
week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern
Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C. Highs will be
upper 90s to around 106 Tuesday through Thursday. Also, heat index
values may reach 105 to 110 across the southern Heartland and
Northwest Hill Country Tuesday and Wednesday. Heat Advisories may
be needed for southern and western portions of west central Texas
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Please follow heat safety precautions.
Expect slightly cooler temperatures next weekend with highs in the
90s to around 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Most sites have not improved to VFR early this afternoon, but KJCT
and KBBD continue to hang on to high end MVFR ceilings. Expect
these to lift or scatter out with some additional warming over the
next couple hours. We will have another chance for scattered
afternoon and evening TSRA, with the best chances near KABI and
KBBD. Have addressed these chances with some VCTS groups at those
sites. Expect the thunderstorm activity to end around 06Z.
Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will move back in again early Monday
morning, with generally south to southeast winds from 10 to 15
knots, with gusts to around 20 knots at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  95  72 101 /  40  20  10   0
San Angelo  73 100  73 104 /  20  10   0   0
Junction    75 100  75 103 /  10  10  10   0
Brownwood   72  91  71  96 /  30  20  20   0
Sweetwater  72  98  73 101 /  30  10   0   0
Ozona       74  98  72 101 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       72  93  73  96 /  20  20  20   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...20