018
FXUS62 KTAE 092002
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A frontal system looks to approach the region from the north with
southerly flow in place ahead of it. It looks to collide with the
sea breeze as it moves north throughout the afternoon hours on
Monday, providing ample low-level convergence. Models are still
indicating a more of a pulse thunderstorm setup and not a well
defined line that moves through. However, with ample forcing for
ascent, showers and storms will be widespread in coverage. With
MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg some storms may be sub-severe or
marginally severe with strong gusty winds as the primary threat.

Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with
overnight lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

A weak frontal boundary will slide south as
surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes
regions. Despite the gradual weakening of the boundary, interaction
with the seabreeze will likely provide enough forcing to spark
thunderstorms particularly across the FL Big Bend where PoPs range
from 30-50%. Elsewhere, PoPs are generally less than 30% given drier
mid-level air pushing into the region. Temperatures on Tuesday are
once again expected to be quite warm with our FL counties pushing
into the low to mid 90s. Our SE AL and SW GA counties will generally
see temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Both Monday evening
and Tuesday evening will see low temperatures in the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Uncertainty still remains high regarding the
possible heavy rain event this weekend. The upper level pattern on
recent guidance would not be as favorable regarding deep moisture
making its way into the northern Gulf, instead favoring the
Peninsula and areas east. This is due to a slower moisture transport
regime than what was previously shown across guidance and the upper
trough moving somewhat faster, perhaps still forming a cutoff low,
displacing the more robust moisture off to our east as previously
mentioned. This upper level pattern would also advect drier mid-
upper level air into the area via northeasterly flow. Additionally,
new guidance suggests that Wednesday and Thursday could be drier
than initially forecast given the slower moisture return resulting
in this being more of a weekend event.

Regardless, PWATs around 2-2.2" will be on tap and the seabreeze
will likely be active each afternoon. The most robust moisture will
be generally confined to the FL Big Bend extending to our
southernmost tier of SW GA counties. This is reflected in the PoPs
ranging from 60-80% each afternoon across the aforementioned areas
beginning Wednesday lasting through the weekend. Coverage still
remains questionable given the drier air aloft, though highest
confidence for thunderstorm development remains across the
aforementioned areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.
Showers north of DHN and ABY may begin to approach these terminals
by the end of the TAF period. Confidence is low on any impact before
the end of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue
through the remainder of today and Monday with wave heights around 1
to 2 feet and light winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms
increase tomorrow as a frontal boundary slides south and will remain
elevated throughout the week with the arrival of tropical moisture.
Beginning around midweek, wave heights will see an increase with
cautionary conditions possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

High dispersions continue through tomorrow region-wide. Tropical
moisture will begin to move into the region over the next few days
with MinRH values continuing to increase. This will also lead to an
increase in rain chances. There are currently no fire weather
concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

Dry weather is expected to continue through the remainder of
today with no immediate hydro concerns. Tomorrow, a wet pattern will
begin as a frontal boundary slides south followed by tropical
moisture arriving over the Gulf. It remains quite uncertain how much
rainfall will occur with this event at this time and is highly
dependent on how long the moisture will linger over the region.
Currently, a few rivers along the Suwannee remain in action stage
and are expected to continue lowering over the next few days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   74  97  73  92 /   0  40  30  40
Panama City   77  90  74  90 /  10  30  40  30
Dothan        73  92  70  89 /   0  60  30  10
Albany        74  94  70  90 /   0  50  40  10
Valdosta      73  95  72  92 /   0  40  40  30
Cross City    73  93  73  93 /  10  10  40  50
Apalachicola  77  89  77  88 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Oliver
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Worster