Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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150 FXUS62 KTAE 080726 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 326 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Surface high pressure will continue to settle into the region today, which will make for a generally cloudless day areawide. Across the mid and upper levels, upper level ridging will be building into the southeast from the west, which will lead to 590 plus dam 500 mb heights. These 500 mb heights will allow for hot temperatures once again across the region today. Expect upper 90s across the Florida Big Bend, with highs approaching near 100 by the afternoon. Portions of SW Georgia and SE Alabama are expected to see high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, while the Florida Panhandle will likely see highs in the mid 90s. Fortunately, enough dry air has settled over the region, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s by this afternoon that heat index values are not expected to be much higher than the actual temperatures forecast for today. Lows overnight tonight look to generally fall into the upper 60s to low 70s across the region. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Dry and hot conditions will round out the weekend on Sunday as an weakening upper level ridge and mostly dry northwest mid-level flow prevail. Temperatures will hit the upper 90s with 100 degrees being possible in some areas. In the absence of any significant low-level moisture, we should avoid seeing any heat indices that reach advisory levels, but heat indices will still climb into the low 100s and likely be one of the hottest days of the year so far. As the upper level ridge continues weakening and is replaced by an approaching upper level trough and southward moving frontal boundary, we`ll see temperatures cool off slightly and see a return to isolated/scattered showers and storms on Monday. Raised POPs compared to what we had yesterday, but still went slightly lower than the NBM given recent high biases in coverage from the NBM. Did note that ensemble support has increased for storm coverage on Monday so did not blend too far away from the NBM as we did in past forecasts. With a deeply mixed boundary layer, an isolated strong wind gust can`t be ruled out in storms on Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Upper level through and frontal system push through Tuesday and we`ll likely see lower rain chances as drier mid-level air behind the trough moves in and a weak upper level ridge builds in. While uncertainty still remains rather large as to how wet conditions will be, we remain confident that a wetter than normal pattern will begin to emerge sometime next week as deep tropical moisture advects northwards into the Florida Peninsula and northern Gulf Coast. While rain chances will still follow their usual summertime diurnal cycles, the northward transport of deep tropical moisture and the upper level support of a potential cut off low across the central Gulf of Mexico would set the stage for a very wet couple of afternoons next week. While too far to determine specifics, the presence of the deep tropical moisture could bring localized flooding concerns late next week. Any tropical development is not overlay favorable with model ensemble support for weak tropical development still remaining very low at this point. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period, with mostly clear skies and light northwesterly to northerly winds at around 5-10 mph or less. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Favorable boating conditions expected this weekend with light winds of 10 mph or less and seas around 1 foot expected. No rain is expected through the weekend but shower and storm chances return by Monday afternoon, with greater chances likely much of next week. Winds and seas will gradually tick upwards as stronger southerly flow develops and it`s possible cautionary/advisory conditions overspread marine waters by the middle to latter part of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Light transport winds around 5-10 mph will remain out of the north/northeast through the mid morning hours before becoming westerly by the afternoon and evening. With hot temperatures expected again today with deep layer mixing, mixing heights are forecast to top out around 5500 to near 7000 ft. With deep layer mixing expected combined with very dry air in place over the region in the wake of the frontal passage yesterday, minimum RH values will likely drop into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region. Overall, there are no fire weather concerns today. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Dry conditions will continue through the weekend with no riverine concerns expected for at least the next few days. A wetter pattern will likely begin to emerge next week, but specifics on where the heaviest rain could fall still remain highly uncertain. With deep tropical moisture moving north, it`s possible some riverine basins could develop new flooding concerns next week and into the following week depending on where the heaviest rains fall. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 71 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 91 74 90 77 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 92 68 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 93 68 96 73 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 95 71 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 95 72 94 73 / 10 0 10 10 Apalachicola 89 75 89 77 / 0 0 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Bunker SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Bunker HYDROLOGY...Dobbs