Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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318 FXUS62 KTAE 141735 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 135 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1047 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 No changes to the forecast. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Low to mid-level northeast flow today with PWAT generally around an inch. Some greater moisture may pool due to the east coast sea- breeze late today in the SE FL Big Bend, where there is a chance of showers and an isolated thunderstorm. Otherwise, remainder of the region is dry. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with dew points around 60 will make heat index values comparable to the ambient air temperatures. A dry night is on tap for the entire region. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 With a relatively dry air mass due to deep layer ridging on Saturday, any shower or isolated thunderstorm activity should be confined to the Eastern FL Big Bend, where the east coast seabreeze will maximize moisture pooling/forcing. The rest of the region is again expected to remain dry similar to Friday. With the lack of precip/clouds, much of the region will bake under a 591 Decameter ridge, with highs away from the coast in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. Heat index values will creep up a bit, but are currently forecast to remain below advisory criteria. On Sunday, a higher PWAT air mass advects in under continued easterly flow, but subsidence from ridging may limit activity. For now, PoPs are near seasonable levels in the 30-50 pct range, but that may be generous. Highs again in the mid to upper 90s. Even if we don`t reach heat advisory criteria, it`s unseasonably hot for mid-June, and everyone should take precautions to avoid heat stress. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The region will be sandwiched between ridging over the Middle Atlantic and low pressure near the Bay of Campeche. This feature has a medium chance of developing into a tropical system over the next week, and is anticipated to remain well southwest of the region. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, with PoPs in the 20-40 pct range, possibly increasing further by Thursday. Highs in the mid-90s each day with lows in the 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Fair weather cumulus has developed over the region this afternoon and are accompanied with some breezier northeast winds. Expect some gusts to 12-18kt gusts being possible over the next couple of hours, with winds decreasing as we lose daytime heating and sunlight. Then skies clear, leaving us with calm overnight conditions. Tomorrow, high pressure should be taking control of the forecast. This should help suppress shower and thunderstorm development, though some of the CAMS try to have some popcorn activity trying to develop. Confidence is too low to add any mention in the TAF lines. && .MARINE... Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Tranquil boating conditions today through Saturday. Thereafter, southeast winds will increase into early next week, as the pressure gradient increases between high pressure northeast of the waters and low pressure developing well southwest of the waters. Seas will become increasingly hazardous to small craft by early next week, when there is the potential for periods of winds around 20 knots through the middle part of next week. Periods of showers and thunderstorms, leading to locally higher winds and seas, are possible beginning on Sunday and continuing through midweek. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 The main fire weather concern is high dispersion this afternoon across much of the area inland from the coast. Pockets of high dispersion are possible mainly in the FL counties on Saturday, with the potential for widespread high dispersion again Sunday. Fairly dry today and Saturday, except for chance of afternoon thunderstorm in the Southeast FL Big Bend. More typical summer showers and thunderstorms may return Sunday afternoon. The heat will reach unhealthy levels Friday into this weekend, as highs range from 95 to around 100 degrees, with heat indices around 100 to 105 this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Below normal rainfall is forecast over the next week with average amounts less than one inch, highest near the coast. Streamflows is also average to below average. There are no flooding concerns over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 96 74 99 75 / 0 0 20 10 Panama City 95 77 94 78 / 10 0 20 10 Dothan 96 74 98 75 / 0 0 10 10 Albany 95 73 98 75 / 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 95 72 99 74 / 10 0 10 10 Cross City 97 71 97 73 / 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 91 78 90 79 / 10 0 20 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for FLZ114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...KR MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF