Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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911 FXUS62 KTAE 021700 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 100 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 923 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 No changes were needed to be made to the forecast today. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop later this afternoon across the region. Some storms may produce strong gusty winds and small hail. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Convection has developed in the northeast Gulf at this early morning hour in an area of convergent bands and deeper moisture. CAMs have this area more or less continuing into the morning hours and developing onshore ahead of the arrival of another shortwave trough with associated lift and instability. This combination will lead to a healthy chance for showers and storms through the day, first in coastal sections this morning then inland areas this afternoon. PWATs will be on the order of 1.8 inches with shear on the low side so severe weather chances are low but some chance for localized flooding could occur if training or slower storm movements take place. DCAPE values today suggest some possibility of gusty to strong winds in a any stronger storms. Inland convection will wane after sunset but residual/redevelopment of marine convection appears plausible overnight while there remains some influence of troughing aloft. Highs today will range through the 80s and lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Our pattern becomes more typical for summer with a diurnally-driven sea breeze circulation. Monday will have rain chances focused more over the Apalachicola River basin and near the Suwannee River. These will be the favored convergence zones with the Forgotten & Emerald Coast sea breezes as well as the Nature and Atlantic Coast sea breezes amidst the southeasterly flow. Given the presence of mid- level dry air, DCAPE values will climb to 900-1100 J/kg within an unstable environment with 15-20 kt deep layer shear. Thus, some storms Monday afternoon could become strong to maybe severe with strong downburst winds possible. Tuesday`s rain chances will be lower as mid-level ridging noses in across the Southeast. However, if storms can develop Tuesday afternoon, these could be strong to possibly severe as well with inverted-V profiles shown on area soundings as well as some mid- level dry air. This could lead to another day of strong downbursts given DCAPE >1000 J/kg and plenty of instability. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another shortwave dives southeastward across the southeast US Wednesday night into Thursday, helping boost our rain chances for Thursday. Rain chances are highest across the northern parts of our area (up to 40%) and lower near the coast. Large-scale troughing overtakes the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US late in the week, but we`ll generally be under the influence of a building ridge from Texas. This will help squash rain chances down to around 20% for the entire area. The heat will build as a result mid to late week with highs widespread in the mid- 90s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat index values will climb to the 100-105 range area- wide. Lows will be in the lower to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across the area today. This will likely cause brief periods of MVFR restrictions if they go over an airport. All terminals are carrying VCTS through the evening until storms begin to dissipate across the area. There is some signal that IFR to LIFR CIGs look to develop at ABY and DHN during the early morning hours Monday. All other terminals look to remain VFR through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms look possible again on Monday afternoon; however, coverage is not expected to be as high. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this morning over the nearshore waters and in Apalachee Bay. Chances decrease this afternoon as storms move inland. A similar pattern is expected Monday, but with less coverage. Generally light winds are southeasterly winds are expected through mid-week as high pressure sets up over the western Atlantic. Winds will become more southwesterly to westerly late in the week as a cold front approaches the area. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 feet for the next several days. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Another mid level disturbance will approach the region today bringing additional moisture and instability which will lead to a good chance for scattered showers and storms through the region today and tonight. Coastal sections have the better chances this morning then transitioning to inland areas this afternoon. Dispersions, mixing heights, and transport winds all look favorable the next few days. Outside of convection, no hazardous fire weather conditions are anticipated. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 322 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024 Some localized heavy downpours are possible in the storms over the next few days, but coverage will generally be spotty enough to avoid widespread flood concerns. However, slow-moving or training storms could result in localized flood issues in urban or poor-drainage areas. This also will not have an impact on area rivers. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 89 71 92 / 20 40 10 20 Panama City 71 87 73 89 / 20 30 10 10 Dothan 67 88 70 90 / 20 30 10 20 Albany 67 89 70 91 / 30 30 20 20 Valdosta 68 91 70 92 / 30 40 20 20 Cross City 68 91 69 93 / 20 40 10 20 Apalachicola 73 85 74 86 / 20 20 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Scholl SHORT TERM...Young LONG TERM....Young AVIATION...Bunker MARINE...Young FIRE WEATHER...Scholl HYDROLOGY...Young