898
FXUS62 KTBW 010026
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
826 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Current forecast remains on track requiring no changes. A few
early evening showers and storms remain out there, mainly near and
to the west of the Tampa Bay area, as well as near Charlotte
Harbor and areas just offshore south of Sanibel in Lee County.
Despite some activity still developing, overall waning trend should
set in by late evening with partly cloudy skies overnight. Trends
favor slightly drier and cooler conditions for Saturday, with
highs mainly in the lower to mid 90s and highest rain chances
confined primarily to SWFL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Conditions look very similiar to yesterday with it being dry and hot
through the afternoon hours with some possible showers and storms
mainly in Southwest. The focus of showers and storms in SW Florida
is due to slight higher PWs in the area.

Drier air will start to settle into the area tomorrow which will
keep the majority of the forecast area dry but an isolated shower or
two can`t be ruled out. Even though we will be drier a strong
easterly wind will help to keep temperatures slightly cool with
inland areas actually a few degrees cooler then areas along the
coast.

By Sunday and into next week moisture will increase and this
will help to increase shower chance. Even though we might all see
some kind of shower activity as we go through next week we are not
expecting any widespread activity which means the drought conditions
are expected to stick around.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Early evening convection potentially impacting TPA/PIE and PGD
with brief restrictions possible will give way to VFR through the
remainder of the period. Easterly winds likely, 5-10 knots through
late morning then increasing to 10-15 knots with higher gusts
through the afternoon before diminishing during the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Winds are expected to increase overnight out of the east
which will give us some exercise caution in the Gulf. These winds
will start to calm down slightly but continue to stay out of the
east for our Saturday. Once again winds will pick up Saturday night
into Sunday morning with exercise caution expected once again before
calming down Sunday afternoon. For next week wind tend to stay light
and variable each night before increasing around 10 knots out of the
east in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Drier air continues to stick around every afternoon through
the weekend and early next week. However, we should stay above
critical RH levels and expected isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity each afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  93  74  92 /  20  20  10  40
FMY  71  94  73  94 /  40  30  20  70
GIF  70  91  70  92 /  10  10   0  40
SRQ  70  94  73  95 /  40  20  20  40
BKV  66  92  65  94 /  10  10  10  30
SPG  76  91  77  92 /  30  20  20  40

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana