176
FXUS62 KTBW 061354
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
954 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Latest surface observations and KTBW VAD wind profile show low
level flow has become more southwesterly as Bermuda high pressure
continues to shift further out into the Atlantic and its
associated ridge axis shifts southward. Winds will continue to
shift further with a more westerly flow becoming established
throughout the day, which will also allow for scattered
convection to develop as the west coast sea breeze spreads inland
with the eventual collision occurring towards the eastern side of
the Florida peninsula. Thus, greatest chances for convection in
the TBW forecast area will generally be interior areas from Polk
county southward into southern interior areas where SPC has
highlighted this region for a Marginal risk of severe storms late
afternoon through this evening. With strong surface heating and
dewpoints in the 70s, MLCAPE values will be around 3000 J/kg and
combined with 500mb temps as cool as -10C, a hail and damaging
wind threat will exist. Otherwise, a warm and humid day ahead
with heat index values approaching advisory levels, though values
are expected to remain just short of criteria ranging from 104-107
over much of the southern half of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

We will have some increase in moisture which should increase shower
activity for Thursday. With a primary westerly flow today our best
chance of storms will be inland in the late afternoon and evening
hours. We are also seeing cooler temperatures around 500mb ranging
from -7 to -10C. This will bring the possibility of some severe hail
and winds during the time of the inland storms. Any chance for
storms near the coast will be in the late morning to early afternoon
but as of right now not expecting any severe weather with the
earlier storms. Once again we will be seeing near record heat across
much of the area so if working or playing outside please stay
hydrated and take breaks.

For our Friday we are seeing an upper level trough push across the
state. This will increase our mid level moisture and give us higher
rain chances across the state. Inland areas, however, will still
have the best chance with PoPs around 60 to 70 percent compare to
coastal areas which will see chances between 40 to 50 percent.

As we go through the weekend the trough that will push through on
Friday will dry us out in the mid levels allowing for mostly dry and
hot conditions.

As we start our next work week tropical moisture from the Caribbean
will start to lift over the state. Storms chances will start to
increase on Monday but the highest chances will be Tuesday and
Wednesday with PW increasing to around 2 inches giving us widespread
showers and storms each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 739 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions in place this morning with southerly winds shifting
to the WSW by the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. The
sea breeze will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop
mostly for interior areas, though a brief window of convection
may occur in the vicinity of coastal terminals by mid to late
afternoon. Otherwise, storms will taper off by this evening with
conditions VFR area-wide through the remainder of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Winds will generally stay out of a westerly direction
through our Monday and stay at or below 15 knots. An upper level
trough Thursday night and Friday will give us our best storm chances
across the Gulf before drying out again for the weekend. Tropical
moisture will increase for early next week bringing higher shower
chances back into the forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Moisture will stay high through the end of our work week as
an upper level trough approaches our area and pushes through on
Friday. We will see scattered storm chances both Thursday and
Friday. Moisture will drop behind the trough with the driest day
being Sunday afternoon where RHs away from the coast will hover
around 40 percent. Moisture will increase significantly for next
week as tropical moisture from the Caribbean lifts north across the
area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  78  92  80 /  40  30  60  20
FMY  96  76  94  78 /  50  70  60  40
GIF  98  75  96  76 /  60  40  60  10
SRQ  92  77  92  79 /  40  30  50  20
BKV  96  72  94  72 /  40  20  70  10
SPG  92  80  91  82 /  30  30  60  20

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Anderson
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Anderson